Merry Christmas

sgt_markets_observations_tony_281123

Whatever way you are going to spend the next few days, I wish you and your family a wonderful and happy time!

C’mon man!  Do you expect me to discuss Financial markets whilst my wife is dragging me around the shops and asking me important questions, such as:

“What colour novelty socks do you want this year?” and “Do you prefer Y-fronts or boxers?”

Now, I am no Grinch, and I am all for a bit of Christmas cheer. But the annual visit to the shopping Mall - which always results in getting Auntie Sheila a bottle of Lavender water in a cellophane covered, wicker basket - has severely lost its appeal.

Once upon a time, the pain of such an outing would have been dulled by a few glasses of warm mulled wine, but now I am off the alcohol; it’s a matter of remembering the comfortable shoes and trying to grin and bear it.

The great thing about being weighed down by lots of Christmas booty is that I cant get my phone out of my pocket, so I am not tempted to buy something at todays high price because prices might improve even further after Christmas.

Indeed, the only thing I can remember buying before Christmas when “high”, and then selling a few days later, when even “higher”, was Marijuana.

(But that was many Christmas’s ago!)

As for you young investors who want to get into something this Christmas that will double in less than a year, may I suggest proposing marriage to your girl friend! ...That certainly worked for me!.

During Christmas, everything is dressed up nicely with lots of people telling you to buy this or that.

But don’t forget; when Christmas is over, and Turkey is nothing more than a dry carcass in the trash can, the decorations will come down, and with them, most of the prices.

A few of you are pondering a certain ETF: Will it, won't it, and what if?

Give yourself a break; the only ETF that matters over the coming 10 days is “Enjoying The Festivities”.

 

Next year, we should see a lot of opportunities for short-term investors. But it will also be a year when we will see more surprises, and not all of them will be good.

Stock-wise, I still feel reluctant to chase equities higher and will probably be looking to sell if I see a good opportunity.

Crude seems undervalued below $70. That doesn’t mean it cannot become even more undervalued, but I wouldn’t be chasing it down just yet.

My overriding view is that 2024 might be worse than 2023.

The simple fact that we are expected to see 24 political elections around the world in 2024 means we should expect our politicians to do more to get elected than to shore up our weak economies.

This time next year, I hope I will be writing something a bit more positive, but I will not do that now, no matter how positive recent reports appear.

As previously discussed, 2024 represents a bit of a milestone for me.

However, when I look around at various other Old Men, i.e. Biden, Trump, Putin, Xi, Klaus Schwab, Larry Fink etc., etc., I cannot help but wonder what their New Year’s Resolutions will be and how the rest of us are going to pay for them?

Luckily, I don’t think it will be long after New Year before we start seeing a pattern forming, and this will hopefully shine some light on how we should position ourselves to make the most of the rest of the year.

But we’ll save that for later.

In the meantime, Seasons Greetings, and I hope you all have a great one!

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