Oil, Inflation and the Bond Market Spoil the Party
Chart Book for 14th of September 2026
This was the week when oil reminded markets that inflation hadn’t disappeared - it had merely gone for a cup of tea.
The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, despite Friday’s 0.9% recovery, as rising crude prices and Treasury yields approaching 5% unsettled investors. The index finished at 7,657, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.7%. Wall Street remains historically expensive, so it doesn’t take much - a barrel of oil, an inflation number or a central banker clearing his throat - to frighten the horses.
Oil was the week’s troublemaker. WTI finished around $100 after gaining roughly 9%, driven by Middle East tensions and fears of disrupted supply. Friday’s retreat provided some relief, but the inflationary consequences remain uncomfortable.
Gold suffered an unusual safe-haven headache, falling more than 2% towards $4,350. Investors may want protection from geopolitical risk, but higher bond yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy have raised the cost of holding bullion.
The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, warning that inflation may remain elevated longer than previously expected. Yet EUR/USD slipped towards 1.1600 as attention shifted to the Federal Reserve and an increasingly firm dollar.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin retreated towards $76,700, with enthusiasm cooling beneath the $80,000–$82,000 resistance zone. The FTSE 100 ended Friday at 10,650 after its worst week since late July, although banks helped produce a late bounce.
Among the glamour stocks, Tesla recovered towards $365, while NVIDIA finished near $218 after losing roughly 5% from Tuesday’s opening - proof that even AI shares occasionally discover gravity.
Looking ahead, Wednesday’s Fed decision dominates everything, with markets heavily favouring a quarter-point increase. Retail sales, housing data and industrial production also matter. Watch S&P support around 7,575, oil’s $100 pivot, Bitcoin at $74,000, gold near $4,300 and EUR/USD at 1.1580. The bulls are still standing, but next week the bond market gets another chance to pull the rug.
Introduction to our Chart Book
In today’s volatile market environment, our technical analysis provides a clear, data-driven framework to support informed investment decisions. By evaluating price action, momentum indicators, and trend behavior across equities, commodities, and indices, we identify key support and resistance levels, reversal signals, and emerging opportunities. Using tools such as Elliott Wave theory, MACD, and Stochastics, we deliver actionable insights to improve trade timing, manage risk, and capture short- to medium-term market moves. This disciplined approach enhances precision and confidence for investors navigating shifting economic conditions.
Read on for our Technical Analysis:
EURUSD - 2 hour chart
EUR/USD has recovered considerably from its July low near 1.1350, but the rally stalled around 1.1700 and has since developed a series of lower highs. Price is now testing the 1.1580–1.1600 region, which has acted as both support and resistance throughout the chart. This is the immediate battleground.
A break below 1.1580 would expose 1.1500–1.1520, followed by 1.1400. Resistance sits around 1.1630–1.1650 and then 1.1690–1.1710. The euro must regain 1.1650 before the short-term bearish pressure begins to ease.
MACD is below zero and beneath its signal line, while the histogram remains negative. The readings are small, so we’re not seeing powerful downside momentum, but the balance remains with sellers. A bullish crossover beneath zero could precede a recovery; until then, rallies appear vulnerable.
Stochastic RSI has fallen to approximately 4–5, leaving EUR/USD deeply oversold on the four-hour timeframe. That creates the conditions for a short-term bounce, especially around 1.1580. However, oversold readings can persist during a trending decline, so we’d want price to recover 1.1610–1.1630 before treating it as anything more than a temporary reaction.
The Elliott picture appears to show an ABC recovery from the July bottom, with wave C potentially ending near 1.1700. The decline since then may represent the opening leg of another bearish sequence. Alternatively, it could be a corrective wave four ahead of one final advance, but that scenario requires 1.1580 to hold.
Our bias is mildly bearish beneath 1.1650. A break below 1.1580 targets 1.1500 and 1.1400. If the euro recovers 1.1650, the immediate pressure eases, while a move above 1.1710 would restore the broader bullish case.
S&P 500
The S&P futures contract remains within its broader uptrend, but the market has entered a corrective consolidation after failing near 7,800. Recent price action shows lower highs and repeated pressure around 7,600, although buyers are still defending approximately 7,575–7,600. This is the first important support zone. Beneath it, we see 7,500 and 7,400–7,425 as the next areas where buyers may return.
Resistance begins around 7,700–7,725, followed by 7,780–7,800. The index needs to recover 7,725 to break the immediate sequence of lower highs; otherwise, rallies remain vulnerable to renewed selling.
MACD is below zero, but the MACD line has crossed above its signal line and the histogram is positive. This indicates that bearish momentum is fading and a recovery attempt may be developing. Nevertheless, both lines remaining below zero means the signal is still tentative.
Stochastic RSI has surged above 90, placing the contract firmly into overbought territory. This reflects the rebound from recent lows, but it also means buyers may struggle if resistance around 7,700 isn’t cleared quickly. A bearish stochastic crossover from these levels would increase the probability of another test of 7,600.
Our Elliott count suggests the rally from the April low may have completed five waves near 7,800. The subsequent price action appears corrective and could be developing as an ABC decline or a sideways fourth wave within a still-extended impulse. Holding above 7,400 would keep the larger bullish structure credible.
For now, we see 7,600 as the tactical pivot. Above it, a recovery towards 7,700 and 7,800 remains possible. A confirmed break below 7,575 would favour a deeper retracement towards 7,500 and potentially 7,400.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin’s explosive August advance from approximately $63,000 to $79,000 changed the short-term structure dramatically, but price has since struggled to extend beyond $80,000–$82,000. The result is a high-level consolidation containing several failed pushes towards the upper boundary. Immediate support sits around $76,000–$77,000, followed by $74,000 and the breakout region near $72,500.
We see resistance at $79,500–$80,500, with the May high around $82,000–$82,500 forming the major hurdle. A decisive close above $82,500 would complete a potentially powerful continuation breakout. Conversely, a break beneath $74,000 would suggest the August surge is being unwound.
MACD remains below zero, reflecting the recent loss of momentum, but the MACD line is above its signal line and the histogram has turned slightly positive. This is an early bullish divergence in momentum rather than a fully confirmed buy signal. A move through zero would strengthen the case for another attack on $80,000.
Stochastic RSI is mixed, with the faster line near 22 and the slower line around 49. The faster line’s deterioration shows that immediate momentum remains soft. We’d watch for a bullish crossover below 20–25, especially if Bitcoin continues holding $76,000.
In Elliott terms, the vertical August move looks like an extended third wave or possibly a complete five-wave impulse. The sideways-to-lower action since then may be wave four, potentially taking the form of a triangle or flat. If so, a fifth wave advance above $82,500 remains possible. A drop beneath $72,500 would make that count doubtful.
We remain cautiously bullish above $74,000. Reclaiming $79,000 would target $82,500 and perhaps $85,000. Losing $74,000 would expose $70,000 and then the origin of the breakout around $64,000–$65,000.
Oil (WTI Crude)
WTI has staged an impressive advance from the July low around $67, producing a clear sequence of higher lows through August and early September. Price briefly traded above $103 before pulling back towards $100, making the $103–$105 area the immediate resistance zone. Beyond that, previous turning points around $109–$112 become relevant.
The breakout above $90 substantially improved the chart, and that former resistance should now provide medium-term support. Closer support lies around $96–$97, followed by $92–$94. A retreat into either area could still be considered a normal correction within the rising structure. A sustained break beneath $90 would be considerably more damaging.
MACD remains above zero, confirming that the broader momentum trend is positive. However, the MACD line has edged below its signal line, and the histogram is fractionally negative. This indicates that upside momentum has paused following the rapid approach to $104.
Stochastic RSI has collapsed to around 7–9, placing oil deeply into oversold territory despite price remaining near its recent high. That is an interesting combination. It suggests short-term selling pressure may be close to exhaustion, and another upward attempt could follow if $98–$100 holds. We still need an upward stochastic crossover for confirmation.
Our preferred Elliott count sees the July low beginning a five-wave advance. The present retreat may be wave four following an extended third wave, which would leave room for a final fifth-wave rally through $104. Alternatively, the spike to $104 may already have completed wave five.
Holding $96 keeps the bullish case alive, with $104 and $110 as upside targets. Below $96, we’d expect a deeper correction towards $92 or $90. Chasing strength directly into $104 looks less attractive than waiting for either a confirmed breakout or a controlled pullback.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold remains in a corrective phase after peaking around $4,650 in August. The recovery from the July low near $3,950 was impressive, but it failed to challenge the earlier highs and has subsequently produced a lower high. Price is now consolidating around $4,350, leaving the metal at an important technical crossroads.
Immediate support sits at $4,300–$4,320, followed by $4,200 and the psychologically important $4,000 area. Resistance is visible around $4,400–$4,450, with a more substantial barrier between $4,600 and $4,675. Gold must recover that upper zone to re-establish a clear sequence of higher highs.
MACD is below zero but almost perfectly flat, with the MACD line marginally above its signal line and the histogram barely positive. This suggests bearish momentum has stopped worsening, although there is no meaningful upside acceleration yet. We’d want to see the MACD move above zero alongside a breakthrough $4,450 before becoming more confident.
Stochastic RSI has climbed to roughly 75 and 68. Momentum is improving and approaching overbought territory, but price hasn’t advanced proportionately. That mild disagreement warns that the recovery could lose energy unless resistance breaks quickly.
The Elliott structure appears corrective. The decline from the February spike can be interpreted as a large ABC formation, while the August rebound may itself have completed a smaller five-wave sequence near $4,650. The subsequent fall could therefore be another ABC correction, with wave C still capable of testing $4,200.
Our bias is neutral inside $4,300–$4,450. A break above $4,450 targets $4,600 and $4,675. Below $4,300, we’d expect $4,200 to come under pressure, and a failure there would put the summer lows back into view.
UK100 Index
The FTSE has pulled back from just below 11,000 and is testing an important support region around 10,600–10,650. This area has repeatedly influenced price since July and represents the lower boundary of the recent consolidation. The broader advance remains intact, but the index is no longer producing clean higher highs. Resistance sits at 10,800–10,850, followed by the major 10,950–11,000 ceiling.
The latest decline briefly pushed below 10,600 before attracting buyers. That rebound is constructive, but we need a close back above 10,700 before calling it a successful false breakdown. Failure to recover that level would leave the index vulnerable to 10,500 and then 10,350–10,400.
MACD remains below zero, although the MACD line has crossed above its signal line and the histogram has turned positive. We read that as an early recovery signal: downward momentum is easing, but a fully bullish trend signal requires both lines to climb back above zero.
Stochastic RSI has rebounded sharply into overbought territory, with both readings close to 90. That confirms the force of the immediate bounce but also warns that the first recovery leg may already be stretched. An overbought stochastic alongside resistance around 10,700 could produce another pause.
Our Elliott Wave interpretation is that the advance from the June low may have completed five smaller waves near 10,950. The current decline could be an ABC correction, with the recent 10,580 area potentially marking wave C. That remains provisional until price clears 10,800.
We would stay tactically constructive above 10,600, targeting 10,800 and 10,950. A decisive break beneath 10,580 would invalidate the immediate recovery case and shift attention towards 10,400.
Tesla
Tesla is attempting to rebuild after its sharp decline from approximately $450 to just below $300. The rebound has recovered the $350 area, but price is now meeting resistance around $365–$375. This zone previously acted as support and therefore carries technical significance. A sustained break above $375 would open the way towards $395–$405, while failure here could return Tesla to $345 and potentially $320.
The larger chart resembles a broad distribution or complex corrective range beneath the $480–$490 highs. We’ve seen lower highs since late 2025, so the longer-term structure won’t become convincingly bullish until Tesla recovers $400 and then breaks the descending sequence around $430–$445.
MACD remains above zero, but the MACD line has slipped marginally beneath the signal line, and the histogram is slightly negative. That tells us the recovery remains alive, although momentum has stalled. We aren’t yet seeing the acceleration normally associated with a clean breakout.
Stochastic RSI is around 28–30, close to oversold territory. It could provide the foundation for another push higher, particularly if the faster line turns upwards. Conversely, a drop beneath 20 while price loses $350 would warn that sellers have regained control.
Our provisional Elliott count treats the fall from the $490 region as an ABC correction, with wave C potentially ending near $300. The current recovery may therefore represent the beginning of a new impulsive sequence. However, it could equally be a corrective bounce within the broader downtrend.
We’d regard $350 as the immediate dividing line. Holding above it keeps $375 and $400 in play. Losing it would suggest the rebound has failed, with $330 and $300 becoming the next downside levels.
NVIDIA
NVIDIA’s broader structure remains bullish, but the shares are now consolidating beneath an increasingly important resistance band between $228 and $235. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows from the April 2025 bottom remains intact, although recent price action has become choppier. We see near-term support around $212–$215, followed by $200–$203. A decisive break beneath $200 would weaken the structure and expose $188–$192.
The MACD has rolled beneath its signal line, with a negative histogram reading, indicating that short-term momentum has deteriorated. However, the MACD lines remain close to equilibrium rather than collapsing, so this currently looks more like consolidation than a confirmed major reversal.
Stochastic RSI is extremely oversold, with both lines near 3. That creates scope for a short-term rebound, although an oversold reading isn’t automatically a buy signal. We’d prefer to see a bullish crossover accompanied by price holding above $212.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the advance from the April 2025 low appears capable of being counted as a five-wave impulsive structure. The rally into the $230 area may represent either a mature fifth wave or only wave three of a larger sequence. That distinction matters: failure at $230 followed by a break below $200 would favour a larger ABC correction, while a clean breakout above $235 would suggest the impulse is extending.
Our actionable view is straightforward. Above $235, the next targets sit around $245 and $255. Between $212 and $235, NVIDIA remains range bound. Below $212, we’d expect another test of $200, where the bulls need to make a convincing stand.
Glossary
Stochastic RSI (StochRSI):
The Stochastic RSI is a momentum indicator that combines the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to measure the speed and direction of price movements. It is primarily used to identify overbought or oversold conditions, helping traders anticipate potential trend reversals. By focusing on the relative position of the RSI within its recent range, StochRSI offers more sensitivity to price changes, making it ideal for spotting short-term trading opportunities.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD is a trend-following and momentum indicator that highlights changes in an asset's strength, direction, and duration. By comparing short-term and long-term moving averages, the MACD helps traders identify potential buy or sell signals and confirm the overall trend. Its histogram visually represents momentum, making it useful for gauging the strength of market moves and spotting potential reversals or continuations.
Elliot Wave:
Elliott Wave Theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, is a technical analysis tool that predicts market price movements through repetitive patterns called waves, driven by investor psychology. It suggests prices move in a cycle of eight waves: a 5-wave impulsive structure in the direction of the main trend (Wave 1 starts the trend, Wave 2 pulls back, Wave 3 is the strongest, Wave 4 pulls back again, and Wave 5 completes the trend), followed by a 3-wave corrective structure (Wave A moves against the trend, Wave B bounces, and Wave C moves against the trend again). These patterns repeat across different time scales, reflecting market sentiment swings between optimism and pessimism. By identifying these waves, traders can anticipate price movements and make better decisions on when to buy or sell.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and trading involves significant risk.
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