SGT Chart Book

sgt_chartbook

The main theme of the week has been higher US interest rates, with yields on the US 10-Year settling on Friday at 4.572%, and we have witnessed the implications for other markets with softness in stocks and the US Dollar index bid.

SP500

SP500 pulls back to trendline support. Seasonality continues with a weak September. The worst month for the SP500 since December 2022. The SP500 fell 4.9% in September but is still up 12% for the year.

Dow Jones 30

In contrast, the Dow has broken through similar T/L support.

10-Year US Rates

After a breakout of the longer term up channel with US 10-year rates peaking above 4.6%, before a pullback after US inflation data (PCE index: Personal consumption expenditure); the Fed’s favored measure of inflation.

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index made new yearly highs, helped by US interest rates. Trendline support is seen around 105.40.

Comparison between US10-Year rates and the US Dollar index shows an interesting correlation.

EURUSD

Unlike the dollar index, the EURO did not manage to make a new yearly low on $ strength and has bounced off the Jan 2023 lows. The downtrend is still intact and would expect initial rallies to be sold into at this point.

USDCAD

The Loonie, as it is commonly referred to, shows a consolidation pattern - watch for the break.

Gold

A prominent theme of selling the rallies has been seen with pullback approaching the 50% retracement of the entire leg up. We had mentioned the Elliot Wave count a few weeks back, and the potential target around $1800, this would coincide with the 61.8% retracement. We have added the wave count chart below.

Chart published Aug 20th, 2023.

Silver

Break of trendline support around 22.50 levels was seen on Friday.

WTI US Oil

Market seems very bullish with Goldman now targeting $100 per barrel. Looks like a crowded trade and may see some weakness 84.50 area the obvious candidate, look left at previous tops.

BTCUSD

Much of the same, lack of movement.

Until next week, happy trading…
SGT Trade Desk

Disclaimer: Trading Desk Observations are not trade recommendations. The purpose of these charts is to bring to your attention potential chart patterns you may wish to monitor.

Connect with SGT Markets

Follow us for the latest news & insights

Related Articles

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book 04.03.24

sgt_markets_tradingguide_forex

Understanding Forex Trading: Top 5 Things You Need to Know

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book: AI and Nvidia Focused Week

sgt_markets_tradingguide_ledger

Ledger in the Crypto World: An In-depth Explanation

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book

sgt_markets_tradingguide_support_resistance

How to Utilize the Fear Greed Index in Trading

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book

sgt_markets_tradingguide_support_resistance

Introduction to Support and Resistance in Trading

sgt_markets_observations_tony_060224

With the price of Cocoa still on the rise, it looks like the wife will not getting a box of chocolates on Valentines Day!

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book

sgt_markets_tradingguide_stellarlumens

Stellar Lumens (XLM): A Complete Guide

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book