SGT Chart Book 02.07.24: Half Year Scores on The Doors

sgt_chartbook

As we reflect on H1, 2024: Stocks, the dollar, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver), Crude Oil (WTI/Brent), BTCUSD and Treasury yields are all higher at the half year mark.

US Equites:

Higher, Driven by the mega cap tech stocks, AI, Dow v. Nasdaq/SP500 divergence. Worries about concentration with 5 largest companies making up just under 30% of SP500.

2024 US Equity posterchild: Nvidia

Dow Jones (USA30) +3.8%, SP500 (USA500) +14.5%, Nasdaq (USA100) +18.1%

 

Volatility:

VIX Lowest levels since 2019

 

The Dollar:

Historic weakness in Yen, with USDJPY Trading above 161, Highest level since the mid 80’s.

 

Precious Metals:

Gold higher by 13% in 2024 so far. Silver breaks out to upside of longer-term consolidation pattern.

 

Crude Oil:

Started the year in low $70’s, we have seen a $10 rally in June.

 

Crypto:

Higher, BTCUSD up 40% at the halfway mark.

 

Treasury yields:

Higher rates, number of expected rate cuts has disappointed the markets as Fed need convincing that inflation is under control.

USA30

Trendline support hoovers under the market.

USA100

Testing top end of up channel.

USA500

The trend has certainly been your friend. Best H1 in an election year since the 70’s.

US10YR RATES

Trendline support /resistance providing traders with some clues to direction, this offers decision making points for technical traders.

DXY

Daily chart shows side way perspective of past 2 years in the US$ Index. Highlighted by the horizontal blue dotted lines.

Shorter term chart shows this year price activity, with the dollar trend in higher.

USDJPY

Japan says, “ready to intervene in currency markets if needed”.

XAUUSD

After a healthy gain in H1, there has been recent consolidation.

XAGUSD

Silver continues to consolidate within the down sloping channel.

XAUXAG

Chart show recent Gold/Silver ratio. After breach of long term trendline support, we are currently retracing back. Close to key decision-making zone.

USOIL

We had recently mentioned the potential of a Head and shoulder top, which after break of neckline showed some promise of lower prices, after initial weakness, Oil has gone on a tear up over $10 in June. YTD gains are at just under 14%.

BTCUSD

While up big for the year, recently has struggled and not been able to get above the recent ATH’s.

ETHUSD

After ETF euphoria. recent weakness has pushed prices lower, is this a buying opportunity?

Join us next week, for more market insights.

 

Happy trading,
SGT Trading Desk

trading@sgt.markets

Disclaimer: Trading Desk Observations are not trade recommendations. The purpose of these charts is to bring to your attention potential chart patterns you may wish to monitor.

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