SGT Chart Book 04.03.24

sgt_chartbook

Highlights from last week:

Nasdaq composite reached an ATH. The previous high was in 2021.

S&P and Nasdaq Set new record highs.

An interesting stat: When the S&P500 closed higher in January and February it went on to finish the year higher 27 out of 28 years. Nvidia reaching new highs, helps the S& P500 notch up its 15th record high of the year.

Nvidia, up by 4%, pulls its market capitalization above $2 trillion - just 180 trading days after hitting the $1 trillion mark, according to Dow Jones Market Data. We have been reporting on the magnificent 7 recently, while now there is talk of the Fantastic 4: Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, while Apple, Google and Tesla are seen as currently being laggards.

The chart below shows the size and importance of the companies mentioned above.

The equity markets have continued to see gains despite strong economic data forcing the market to pull back hopes of an interest-rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. Next week, traders will get additional information about the path forward for monetary policy when Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress and the Labor Department releases its February jobs report (NFP’s).

Last week's key economic announcements:

The PCE Price index rose by 3.9%, above expectations of 3.7%.

The ISM Manufacturing index came in at a disappointing 47.8.

10-year Treasury yields ended the week lower after weaker-than-expected reports on U.S. manufacturing activity, consumer sentiment and construction spending. The benchmark settled at 4.180%.

Two other notable US equity market movers:

New York Community Bancorp was back in the news with the bank’s shares tumbling 26% on Friday after the company said it unearthed “material weaknesses” in loan controls, replaced its chief executive and took a $2.4 billion charge.

The session’s other big winner was Dell, which reported Thursday that it had a backlog of orders for artificial-intelligence servers. Shares in the Texas PC maker ripped 32% higher afterward.

In other world equity markets, the Nikkei 225 gained over 2%, while Europe’s STOXX Europe 600 closed the week near record highs.

U.S. crude rose by 2.2% to $79.97 a barrel Friday, continuing a seasonal uptick as summer driving season approaches.

Gold rallied with prices rising to a 2-month high.

Crypto had a big week, with BTCUSD testing close to $64,000. Huge BTC ETF’s inflows were seen, breaking ETF records for inflows. Blackrock becomes fastest ETF to have $10 billion AUM in 37 trading days…. WOW.

ETHUSD rallied to nearly $3,500. Coinbase hit the news when many users were left seeing a balance in their account of zero. This was suggested to have caused a move from $64k to $59k in about 15 minutes.

In the world of commodities, Cocoa hits ATH.

Nasdaq Composite

Potential 5-wave Elliot Wave pattern playing out. Guidelines: Wave 5 needs to end with Momentum showing divergence. (Prices reach a new high but the indicator doesn’t reach a new peak).

USA500 - ATH

US10-YEAR RATES

Consolidation below the trendline resistance and above the 200-day MA.

EURUSD

Holds above the 1.0790 area that was the broken down trendline. Week range confined to about 1 big figure.

USDJPY

150.70/80 resistance, look left, seeing a number of previous tops, Beware BOJ!

XAUUSD

Broke back above the 2060 resistance area. Reaches up to the December 2023 highs.

XAGUSD

Short-term charts show aggressive rally, breaking out of S.T downtrend, $23.50/60 the next big resistance area. Ahead of the longer term trendline resistance, we have shown the last few weeks.

USOIL

Highest close since November 2023. Are we going to see a break here, as world demand for oil is set to move up to all-time highs (ATH)? Test of the longer-term resistance around $84…not so good for inflation.

BTCUSD

Star performer of the week with a test of around $64,000, up almost 160% in one year. It also represents the biggest dollar gain on a monthly basis, over $20,000 in history.

Happy trading,
SGT Trading Desk

trading@sgt.markets

Disclaimer: Trading Desk Observations are not trade recommendations. The purpose of these charts is to bring to your attention potential chart patterns you may wish to monitor.

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