SGT Chart Book 11.03.24

sgt_chartbook

Stocks Drop After February Jobs Report - Non-Farm Payroll (NFP). Wall street Journal weekend headline reads: Cooling Labor Boosts Rate-Cut Hopes.

Friday’s jobs report showed U.S. employers added 275,000 jobs in February and revised down January’s numbers. The unemployment rate moved up to 3.9%, and wage growth slowed. Market commentators were mostly encouraged by the report, arguing that robust new job numbers combined with slowing wage growth shows the Federal Reserve can curb inflation without tipping the economy into a downturn. This economic release provided some of the latest evidence that the U.S. economy is making progress toward a so-called soft landing that brings inflation down without triggering a recession.

 

President Biden’s State of the Union address on Thursday pointed to investments spanning renewable energy and manufacturing “The landing is and will be soft,” he said.

 

Fed’s Powell in hearings on Capitol Hill” Powell said “the Fed is seeking greater certainty that inflation is sliding closer to the central bank’s 2% target before it begins easing monetary policy”.

“When we do get that confidence— and we’re not far from it—it will be appropriate to dial back,” he said.

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday also left its key interest rate unchanged as the market expected. The Stoxx Europe 600 finished the week at a record high, for the first time ever trading at 500.

 

US Equities post weekly losses, led by Nasdaq, as big tech shares take a hit, down 1.2% on the week, after both SP500 and Nasdaq post new highs for this up move.

 

Nvidia recorded a stark reversal Friday, its shares trading up more than 5% early in the session before closing down 5.6% - overall the stock is still up nearly 80% in 2024.

 

Wall Street is looking to the Fed’s June meeting for the central bank’s first potential rate cut of the cycle.

 

Treasury yields were lower on the week, with the yield on 10-year notes closing at 4.088%.

The market will get a look at inflation figures on Tuesday with the release of February’s consumer-price index (CPI).

 

USD suffers worst week in 6.

 

Bitcoin reaches new All-Time-High (ATH) at $70,000 at the time of writing.

 

Gold prices also rose, continuing their record- breaking week to settle at $2,178.60 an ounce.

USA30

I know we sound like the preverbal broken record but since making ATH, the indicators v. price action exhibits Bearish divergences.

USA500

New highs before alate Friday sell off.

USA100

Chart shows price action after NFP announcement at 8:30 am EST, through to the close on Friday.

NVIDIA

Quite a ride for NVIDIA investors on Friday after making new highs, before a significant selloff, charts show outside range day, the Big RED bar, where prices encapsulate the previous days, ranges closing at lows.

US10-YEAR RATES

After a retracing move back up towards the broken trendline, we have moved down in line with the economic releases of the week to the lowest level in 6 weeks, closing below the 200-day MA.

GBPUSD

We broke above the long term trendline.

USDJPY

No better chart to illustrate USD weakness last week. We had mentioned previously the significance of the 150.70/80 area.

EURUSD

Hourly price action showing Euro the winner on the week. The Dollar’s worst week in 3 months. We still trade broadly sideways for those global macro guys.

XAUUSD

New highs close to $2,200. Gold’s rally is also attributable to USD$ weakness. XAU up for 8 days in a row and up over 10% in last 3 days of trading.

XAGUSD

Silver moved above the S.T resistance illustrated with the dotted blue line. We still trace out a larger chart formation as we approach the apex of the triangle.

USOIL

A relatively quiet week for oil, after last week closing above previous highs, major chart levels still intact.

BTCUSD

Massive ETF inflows were reported last week, with Blackrock reporting $788 million in one day.

XRPUSD

It’s not just BTC that is moving higher. XRP needs to break above this downtrend line to encourage the Bulls.

ETHUSD

ETH actually outperformed BTCUSD on the week, up over 14% to challenge $40,00 - not seen since 2021.

Join us next week for more market insights.

 

Happy trading,
SGT Trading Desk

trading@sgt.markets

Disclaimer: Trading Desk Observations are not trade recommendations. The purpose of these charts is to bring to your attention potential chart patterns you may wish to monitor.

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