SGT Chart Book 15.04.24

sgt_chartbook

Key Market Drivers

Inflation and geopolitical worries were once again the focus of the week. We are getting further risk off sentiment heading into the weekend, and seeing a flight to safety, with the dollar stronger, and equities being sold off.

Tehran (has now) retaliated for the Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic building. The U.S. rushed warships into position to protect Israel and American forces in the region, hoping to head off a direct attack from Iran on Israel that could come as soon as this weekend (which it did).

At the time of writing, Iran has launched drone and missile attacks on Israel, and traders will be anxious at the opening of the markets on Sunday evening.

The consumer-price index (CPI) rose 3.5% in March from a year earlier. The third straight month in which prices were higher than expected, which is likely to put rate cuts on hold for either better inflation data, or the type of economic weakness the FED are hoping to avoid.

Summary

  • Equities: The Dow fell 2.37% this week (its worst week since March 2023).
  • US Yields are higher, with US-10 years closing around 4.5%.
  • The dollar is higher at the end of the week, gold too is higher despite a strong US$.
  • Central Bank Buying a (safe-haven demand).
  • Gold has set another record high, with the rally driven by central bank purchases, safe-haven demand, and geopolitical tensions.
  • Oil prices continued their rise on reports that Israel is preparing for a direct attack by Iran this weekend, in what could be the biggest escalation of tensions in the region since the terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas last October, and the subsequent counterattack by Israel.

USA30

Break of the channel base and 50-Day moving average.

US-10 YEAR RATES

SP500 retraces for worst week in 2024. Down 1% on the week, still up over 9% YTD.

US10 YEAR RATES

After a weekly rally, we are seeing trendline resistance around 4.6%.

VIX

Volatility jumps up.

DXY

The dollar has benefited from Middle East tensions and higher US interest rates. Note the breach of the channel top.

EURUSD

Interest rate differentials pays you to be long US$ and short EUR. Technically, a break of the 1.07 area, encouraged the bears.

USDJPY

A break above major chart resistance and BOJ areas of interest.

EURJPY

A break below the short-term trendline support.

EURGBP

Tight ranges have been the headline this year. Watch trendline breaks for the catalyst to move us out of current ranges.

XAUUSD

Having hit a fresh all-time high of $2,448.80 earlier in the session, gold has gained 1.2% during the past week and over 14% in the year to date. Late Friday saw a substantial pullback of nearly $100 from the highs (see the hourly chart below).

XAGUSD

Silver approached close to $30, before a sell-off late on Friday.

USOIL

U.S. crude settled at $85.66 a barrel after rising above $87.

BTCUSD

A weekend selloff…

Join us next week, for more market insights.

 

Happy trading,
SGT Trading Desk

trading@sgt.markets

Disclaimer: Trading Desk Observations are not trade recommendations. The purpose of these charts is to bring to your attention potential chart patterns you may wish to monitor.

Connect with SGT Markets

Follow us for the latest news & insights

Related Articles

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book 20.05.24

sgt_markets_trading_guide_generic

Unlocking the Secrets of the Stochastic Oscillator: A Beginners Guide

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book 13.05.24

sgt_markets_observations_tony_100524

Reflecting on Crypto: Are We Heading in the Right Direction?

sgt_markets_heikin

Mastering the Art of Heikin Ashi Candlesticks for Improved Trading Decisions

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book 06.05.24

sgt_markets_observations_tony_030524

When things go wrong or the markets become quiet, we must put in more effort

sgt_markets_elliot_wave

Mastering Market Predictions: A Beginners Guide to Elliott Wave

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book 29.04.24

sgt_markets_bep20

Deciphering the BEP20 Network: What is a Smart Chain?

sgt_markets_observations_tony_230424

The halving of bitcoin and other ramblings

sgt_chartbook

SGT Chart Book 22.04.24