SGT Chart Book
Inter-market analysis can be extremely helpful in building out a technical picture across asset classes. Last week we saw potential completion of a 5-wave upward move in EUR/USD and XAU/USD, and a series of outside day* chart patterns, technical divergences or indicators rolling over across other markets.
*OUTSIDE Day definition: An outside day is a daily price action that has a higher high and a lower low than the prior price bar.
US Dollar Index Daily Chart
The dollar re-tested the Feb lows around 100.80 before putting in a rally on Friday to complete an outside day. Market Technicians watch these chart patterns to help determine potential turning points, this is also known as a bullish engulfing pattern.
EURUSD Daily Chart
There is a potential Elliot wave count with a 5-wave rally in EUR/USD, MACD studies are turning over to the downside and Friday put in an outside day for the pair. While not a recommendation, traders will need to watch price behaviour as the week unfolds for additional clues to short-term direction.
GBPUSD Daily Chart
GBPUSD price action confirms the price patterns seen in EUR/USD and the US $ Index. With an outside day (bearish engulfing pattern) and technical rolling over to the downside, could a short-term top have been established?
XAUUSD Daily Chart
We may have seen a short-term top put in place with a potential 5-wave Elliot wave count and the technicals also clearly running out of steam and starting to turn over. Initial support is seen at 1980/85 then 1930 level. Top side targets “look left” at the March 2022 highs around 2070.
XAGUSD Daily Chart
Having seen the break in daily trendline resistance above 25.10/15 level and the subsequent rally last week into the $26.00/10 area, we can see the indicators are getting stretched and while not a reason to sell on its own, it’s worth also noting that Silver put in a outside day on Friday.
US 10-Year Daily Chart
Rates continued to trade within the well-developed channel, with the techs looking to have bottomed out and head higher.
USA500 Daily Chart
Last week saw SP500 continue its choppy rally into the initial resistance zone around the 4150/60 levels representing the 50% retracement of the entire down leg. Breaks here would challenge the previous top around 4200 then 61.8% at 4310/20 area. On the downside levels to watch are 4065/70, for a S.T top to have been put in place.
Apple Daily Chart
A very clear channel is observed on the daily chart. $168 will offer some resistance and chart followers will watch this area closely for further market directions.
Having broken up above the resistance zone as mentioned in the last couple of weeks, we see that this price rally is not confirmed by the technical indicator (MACD), as can see bearish divergences. While this is not a reason in isolation to get out of longs, it’s something to watch closely as the week progresses. Upside $32,800 area is seen resistance.
Trading Desk Observations are not trade recommendations. The purpose of these charts is to bring to your attention potential chart patterns you may wish to monitor.
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