SGT Chart Book 18.03.24

sgt_chartbook

S&P 500 lower for Second Straight Week, after higher-than-expected inflation data releases. Consumer (CPI) and producer prices (PPI) released earlier this week reported higher inflation than expected. This data is expected to slow down hopes that the Fed could soon begin cutting interest rates.

Meanwhile, Americans appeared a little less optimistic. The University of Michigan’s monthly measure of U.S. consumer sentiment released Friday came in lower than economists anticipated.

 

As a rate-cut expectations fall, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.303%, from 4.088% the week prior.

 

Next week will all be about the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday. Though the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their policy meeting next week, the market will be looking to the meeting for more clarity about when the central bank could begin lowering rates.

 

European stocks continue to make new highs, longest winning run since 2022.

 

US Dollar rallied during the week, with USDJPY testing back above 149 and EURUSD seeing a close below 1.09.

 

In energy markets, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, gained 4% this week to settle at $85.34 per barrel.

 

Gold lower by 1%.

 

BTC made fresh ATHs around $73K, before seeing selling pressure pushed prices back close to $65k. As at time of writing, prices have regained the $70k level. We expect further volatility, something the trading community enjoys, with price movement comes opportunities for all types of traders.

USA500

The first time the SP500 has closed lower for 2 consecutive weeks since October 2023. Indicator divergence. Higher prices NOT supported by momentum indicator.

USA100

Breach of short-term trendline support on Friday, will this prove to be significant of just a pullback to offer Bulls a better buying opportunity. Key will be Fed on Wednesday.

Hourly USD100

Trendline break as seen from a shorter time frame.

US10 YEAR RATES

No surprise that US rates are higher after the inflation data for the week.

DXY USD INDEX

$ gains for the week. Higher interest rates probably helped.

XAUUSD

Consolidation, with a stronger US Dollar helping push gold lower on the week by approximately 1%.

Hourly XAUUSD

The hourly chart below clearly shows the short- term support/resistance zones.

XAGUSD

Testing top side of our longer-term consolidation that Silver has traded within for some time. Strong support around $23.50.

USOIL

Breaking out of recent range, with highest prices since last November. Trendlines show areas of interest, offering Low risk/reward opportunities.

BTCUSD

Heightened volatility displayed by this 5-minute bar chart of the week’s price action, after reaching new all-time highs around $73k.

Join us next week for more market insights.

 

Happy trading,
SGT Trading Desk

trading@sgt.markets

Disclaimer: Trading Desk Observations are not trade recommendations. The purpose of these charts is to bring to your attention potential chart patterns you may wish to monitor.

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