SGT Chart Book 24.06.24


Last Week's Highlights:

S&P 500 Rises for the third week in a row and is up 15% this year due to gains in AI-related stocks. The index hit 5,500 for the first time ever.


The rise and fall in shares of Nvidia, the post child for AI technology, has helped drive the direction of the major indexes this year. The stock rallied last week, briefly making Nvidia the world’s most valuable public company. Since the S& P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are weighted by market value, moves in mega-cap stocks such as Nvidia have a big influence on their performance. Shares of Nvidia fell 3.2% on Friday, capping the stock’s first weekly decline since April.


There’s a lot of concern about the breadth of the market. With combined market cap of the 3 largest US companies Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft bigger than ALL other stock markets outside the US. Tech stocks account for over 40% of SP500 market capitalization, a new record.


US Data:


US retail sales increased 2% in the past year, but after adjustments for inflation were down 1.2%.

Industrial production was above expectations in May expanding 0.9%.


Investors have also been monitoring economic data for clues about the path of inflation and if and when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Data Friday showed home sales slowed in May, reflecting continued tightness in the housing market. Sales of previously owned homes fell 0.7% from the prior month, the third consecutive monthly decline, according to the National Association of Realtors. From a year ago, sales were down 2.8%.


Meantime, business activity in the U.S. continued to grow rapidly this month, according to surveys of purchasing managers released Friday.


The Bank of England keep interest rates unchanged, while Swiss National bank cut rates for the second time in this cycle.


The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed for week at 4.256%.


In the currency markets, USDJPY trades back toward the 160 Level.


Broad based up channel, with recent break of a tighter up channel/trendline support.


Similar to SP500, after new highs, sell off breaks below trendline support.


Trend line support hoovering below the market.


Chart illustrates the lack of concern currently; it quantifies market expectations derived from the prices of options on the SP500 index.


USD Strength, pushing rates back up to the Yen 160 level, the level mentioned that BOJ will protect.


GBP saw weakness after initial failure to hold above T/L resistance followed by the break below channel support.


Break of trendline resistance before PMI releases Friday sent gold lower.


Silver consolidates within channel. Providing good technical levels for traders to make decisions.


After mentioning the potential for a Head and Shoulders chart pattern. Lat week saw Oil rally to its highest levels since April.


Break below trendline support.


Horizontal trendline support around $3350/60 level, break above the previous spike top and trendline resistance around $3650 needed to encourage the bulls.

Join us next week, for more market insights.


Happy trading,
SGT Trading Desk

Disclaimer: Trading Desk Observations are not trade recommendations. The purpose of these charts is to bring to your attention potential chart patterns you may wish to monitor.

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