Momentum
Over the weekend I had a discussion with an important European industrialist friend, who asked me about the outlook for the stock market, i.e. what I thought would happen over the next year or so.
Last week I highlighted the 1.1340 area as a key technical support zone, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the broader move from the February 2025 low to the January 2026 high. That level held, and EUR/USD rallied to 1.1473 following the weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report before stalling at the declining 20-day moving average.
Last week I highlighted the 1.1340 area as a key technical support zone, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the broader move from the February 2025 low to the January 2026 high. That level held, and EUR/USD rallied to 1.1473 following the weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report before stalling at the declining 20-day moving average.
EUR/USD has traded down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the February 2025 low at 1.0141 to the January 2026 multi-year high at 1.2081.
After years of rate-induced paralysis, capital markets are finally showing signs of life. The numbers tell a story of selective recovery – strong activity in certain pockets, continued caution elsewhere, and a market that’s learned to function without the easy money of the 2010s.
Listen, EUR/USD just gave us something interesting. After getting absolutely…