The Bulls Keep Charging – Straight Towards an Interest-Rate Shock
Chart Book for 7th of September 2026
Markets spent the week balancing artificial-intelligence enthusiasm against the growing suspicion that central banks aren’t finished tightening. The S&P 500 gained just 0.1%, closing at 7,718.60, while the Nasdaq added 0.4%. Friday’s 162,000 increase in US payrolls - almost three times expectations - sent Treasury yields higher and revived fears of a September Fed rate rise.
NVIDIA was the bright spot, rising nearly 6% across the week to $230.36 as strong results reinforced confidence in continued AI spending. Tesla provided the drama: enthusiasm before its Cybercab event briefly lifted the shares, but regulatory scrutiny helped trigger a 5.9% Friday reversal, leaving them around $354.
EUR/USD finished near $1.161, marginally higher on the week. Dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller initially weakened the dollar, before those punchy employment figures restored some greenback muscle. The FTSE 100 quietly gained 0.4% to 10,831, helped by its international and commodity exposure.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly exceeded $82,000 - its best level since May - before settling around $80,000 as ETF inflows improved crypto sentiment. Oil was the week’s real firecracker: WTI jumped almost 10% towards $91.50 as renewed US-Iran hostilities threatened already-impaired Middle Eastern supply routes. Gold, despite the geopolitical tension, lost 1.1% to roughly $4,430 as rising yields outweighed safe-haven demand.
Looking Ahead
Next week brings Thursday’s ECB decision, with markets leaning towards another rate increase, followed by US producer inflation and Friday’s crucial CPI report. Oracle earnings and Apple’s product launch add corporate interest.
Technically, we’re watching S&P resistance at 7,780–7,830, EUR/USD support at 1.1560, Bitcoin’s $82,000 ceiling, WTI at $92 and gold around $4,350. Cautious optimism remains justified - but with oil rising and rate expectations hardening, this market is walking uphill in increasingly expensive shoes.
Introduction to our Chart Book
In today’s volatile market environment, our technical analysis provides a clear, data-driven framework to support informed investment decisions. By evaluating price action, momentum indicators, and trend behavior across equities, commodities, and indices, we identify key support and resistance levels, reversal signals, and emerging opportunities. Using tools such as Elliott Wave theory, MACD, and Stochastics, we deliver actionable insights to improve trade timing, manage risk, and capture short- to medium-term market moves. This disciplined approach enhances precision and confidence for investors navigating shifting economic conditions.
Read on for our Technical Analysis:
EURUSD - 2 hour chart
EUR/USD has recovered strongly from its late-June low around 1.1330, but the rally stalled near 1.1700 and has since developed into a short-term corrective structure. Price is now trading near 1.1613, beneath immediate resistance around 1.1625–1.1640. We can see a succession of lower highs from the late-August peak, although the pair continues to hold above its early-September low around 1.1560.
A break above 1.1640 would weaken the immediate bearish structure and bring 1.1670, followed by 1.1700–1.1710, back into focus. A close over 1.1710 would confirm the broader uptrend has resumed, potentially targeting 1.1750 and 1.1800. On the downside, 1.1580–1.1560 is the critical support band. Losing it would expose 1.1520, followed by the stronger breakout support between 1.1480 and 1.1500.
MACD is hovering close to its zero line, reflecting the absence of strong directional momentum. The MACD line is approximately 0.00034 against a signal around 0.00056, leaving a slightly negative histogram. We interpret that as mild bearish pressure rather than a decisive sell signal. The Stochastic RSI sits around 30 and 29, close to oversold but without a strong upward crossover. The pair could therefore still probe support before producing a more convincing recovery.
Our provisional Elliott count treats the advance from 1.1330 to 1.1700 as a five-wave impulse. The subsequent decline may be forming an A-B-C correction, with wave C potentially testing 1.1560 or 1.1520. If those levels hold and momentum turns upward, the larger bullish sequence can resume. A sustained break beneath 1.1480 would challenge that interpretation and imply a deeper correction.
We’re neutral inside 1.1560–1.1640. Above 1.1640, buyers regain an advantage; beneath 1.1560, the correction probably has another leg to run.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures - 2-Hour Chart
The S&P 500 remains close to record territory, but the short-term picture is more hesitant than the headline level suggests. Following the August high around 7,820–7,830, futures have moved into a broad consolidation, with support appearing between 7,620 and 7,650 and resistance around 7,755–7,780. Price near 7,715 sits almost in the middle of that tactical range.
The latest rebound from roughly 7,620 was constructive, although it has not yet reclaimed the preceding swing high near 7,775. A break above that level would favour another attempt at 7,820, and a close above 7,830 could release the index towards 7,900. On the downside, 7,680 is the first minor support, followed by 7,620. Losing 7,620 would complete a lower high and lower low sequence, exposing 7,550–7,575 and possibly 7,480.
Momentum currently argues for caution. MACD is still above zero, but the MACD line around 9.9 has fallen below its signal near 16.3, leaving a negative histogram around -6.4. The upswing is therefore losing momentum. More immediately, the Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold, with both readings below 10. This can produce a reflex bounce, but an oversold reading alone isn’t a buy signal; we want to see a bullish crossover and price hold above support.
In Elliott terms, the August high may represent the completion of a five-wave advance from the late-July low. The market may now be tracing an A-B-C correction, with the fall to 7,620 as wave A, the recovery towards 7,775 as wave B, and a possible wave C still developing. Alternatively, the consolidation may be a sideways wave four ahead of one final high.
We’d avoid chasing either direction inside the range. Above 7,780, the bulls regain momentum. Below 7,620, the corrective count becomes dominant.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - 4-Hour Chart
Bitcoin has rebounded dramatically from the August base around $63,000–$64,000 and is now consolidating close to $80,000. The vertical nature of the initial move matters: it demonstrates strong demand, but it also left relatively little support between approximately $66,000 and $75,000. Price is currently building a compact range between roughly $76,000 and $82,000, which may become either a continuation flag or a short-term distribution pattern.
Resistance is concentrated around $81,500–$82,500. A confirmed breakout would expose $84,000, followed by the larger supply zone around $88,000–$90,000. Support sits at $77,000–$76,000, with $74,000–$75,000 becoming important if the range breaks lower. Losing $74,000 would increase the risk of a partial retracement towards $70,000 and possibly the original breakout area near $65,000.
MACD remains positive in absolute terms, but it has weakened. The MACD line is around 330 against a signal near 395, producing a negative histogram of roughly -65. We’re therefore seeing the momentum from the August surge decelerate. The Stochastic RSI is close to oversold, with readings around 19 and 15. That creates the possibility of another short-term upswing, particularly if price continues holding above $76,000.
An Elliott count can treat the surge from $63,000 as wave one, followed by the current sideways-to-lower consolidation as wave two. A breakout through $82,500 would then suggest that a potentially powerful wave three is beginning. The competing interpretation is that the entire rise was wave A, with the current range part of wave B before another corrective leg lower or a final wave C higher.
Our bias remains cautiously bullish while $76,000 holds. A clean break over $82,500 would offer the strongest confirmation. Below $74,000, we’d abandon the immediate bullish count and expect the market to fill more of the gap left by August’s explosive advance.
WTI Crude Oil - 4-Hour Chart
WTI has staged a substantial recovery from its late-June low near $67, but the advance is now confronting important resistance around $91.50–$92.50. This area capped the July rebound and is therefore a clear neckline for the next directional move. A decisive break above $92.50 would complete a bullish continuation pattern and could target $96, followed by the psychologically significant $100 level.
The recovery since July has produced a sequence of higher lows, initially around $75 and subsequently near $79–$81. That structure remains bullish, but the immediate rejection from $92 warns us that sellers are still defending the old breakdown area. Near-term support lies around $88–$89, followed by $84–$85. A close below $84 would damage the rising structure and place $80 back in play.
Momentum has softened at resistance. MACD remains above zero, with the MACD line around 1.12, but it has crossed beneath its 1.42 signal line, leaving a negative histogram near -0.30. That suggests the broader recovery retains momentum, although its latest burst has stalled. The Stochastic RSI has dropped sharply to approximately 26 and 43. It is approaching oversold territory after the retreat, potentially creating another bullish setup if the faster line turns upward while price holds support.
Our Elliott Wave count tentatively labels the rally from $67 as a developing five-wave advance. Waves one and two may have completed during July, with the August rise representing wave three. The pullback towards $80 could have been wave four, leaving the current test of $92 as part of wave five. However, if price repeatedly fails at $92, the entire advance may instead prove to be an A-B-C correction within the larger decline from April.
We’d use $92.50 and $88 as the immediate triggers. Above $92.50, continuation towards $96–$100 is favored. Below $88, patience is warranted, with $84–$85 offering the next meaningful test.
Gold (XAU/USD) - 4-Hour Chart
Gold has recovered from its July base around $3,950–$4,000, but the rebound has stalled beneath the early-August high near $4,650. Price is currently around $4,430, leaving it caught between near-term support at $4,350–$4,380 and resistance around $4,475–$4,500. This creates a decision zone rather than a clean directional setup.
A close above $4,500 would improve the picture and bring $4,600–$4,670 back into play. Beyond that, $4,800 is the next substantial resistance area. Conversely, a break below $4,350 would weaken the rebound and expose $4,250, followed by $4,100–$4,150. The July base near $4,000 remains the major structural support.
MACD is attempting to repair the damage caused by the recent sell-off. The MACD line is still slightly negative near -2.1, but it has crossed above a more negative signal line around -8.7, generating a positive histogram close to 6.6. We read that as improving momentum, although not yet a fully confirmed bullish trend. Stochastic readings near 53 and 66 have retreated from overbought territory. The faster line sitting below the slower one shows that upside momentum has cooled, but the indicator is not yet oversold.
The Elliott Wave picture suggests the decline from the February peak around $5,550 may have unfolded as a large A-B-C correction, potentially terminating at the July low. The rally into $4,670 could then represent wave one - or wave A - of a new recovery, while the latest retreat may be wave two or wave B. Holding above $4,300 would support that constructive interpretation. A break below $4,100 would make it much less convincing.
We’d wait for confirmation. Above $4,500, the bulls regain control; below $4,350, another test of lower support becomes likely. Between those levels, gold is still negotiating the shape of its next move.
UK100 Index - 4-Hour Chart
The FTSE remains structurally bullish, but it has moved into a sideways consolidation after reaching approximately 10,970 in early August. Price is holding around 10,830, with the recent range broadly contained between 10,700 and 10,920. We see this as digestion near the highs rather than outright distribution, although the index must clear 10,900–10,970 before the next leg higher can be confirmed.
A successful breakout would bring 11,000 into immediate focus, followed by a potential measured objective around 11,100–11,150. On the downside, 10,760–10,700 is the first meaningful support zone. A break beneath that area would expose 10,600, where the July breakout began. The broader sequence of higher lows remains intact while the index holds above roughly 10,500–10,600.
MACD is encouraging. The MACD line stands near 10.9 against a signal around 5.1, producing a positive histogram close to 5.8. Momentum has turned upward from near the zero line, which often supports another attempt at resistance. The Stochastic RSI is less decisive, sitting around 62 and 67. It has eased slightly but remains in the upper half of its range, neither overbought nor oversold. That gives the market room to advance without an immediate momentum excess.
Our preferred Elliott interpretation counts the rise from the March low near 9,650 as an impulsive advance. The August high may have completed wave three, with the subsequent sideways movement forming a shallow wave-four correction. If that reading is correct, a wave-five push through 11,000 remains possible. The alternative is that five waves already ended at the August high, in which case the present range may form the early stages of a broader A-B-C correction.
For now, we’d stay constructively bullish above 10,700. A break over 10,970 favours continuation; a close below 10,700 would suggest that the corrective phase has further to run.
Tesla - 4-Hour Chart
Tesla is attempting to recover from its sharp August decline, but the rebound remains technically incomplete. Price has climbed from approximately $300 to $354, yet it is now running into a congested resistance band between $360 and $376. A break above $376 would improve the structure considerably and expose $395–$405, followed by the May reaction area near $440. Until that happens, we have to treat this as a recovery inside the broader decline from the late-2025 high around $490.
Initial support sits near $340, with the more important short-term floor around $320–$325. If that gives way, the August low between $295 and $305 returns to view. The recent rebound has produced higher lows, but it hasn’t yet overturned the succession of lower highs visible since May.
Momentum is mixed. MACD remains above zero, but the line around 4.86 has slipped beneath its signal near 5.36, leaving a slightly negative histogram. We’re seeing positive medium-term momentum losing some immediate force rather than a fully established bearish reversal. The Stochastic RSI has fallen to roughly 26, while its slower line remains near 51. That bearish separation reflects the recent hesitation and leaves scope for a deeper pullback, although the faster reading is approaching oversold territory.
The Elliott Wave interpretation is less tidy than NVIDIA’s. We can count the decline from the May high near $450 as a possible five-wave move ending around $300. If so, the current recovery may be an A-B-C correction, with wave A having reached the $360–$376 region. Alternatively, the August low may have completed a larger wave C, allowing a more durable advance to develop.
We’d regard $376 as the confirmation level. Above it, the recovery becomes tradable towards $400. Below $340, the bounce is weakening; below $320, the bearish trend is likely reasserting itself.
NVIDIA - 4-Hour Chart
NVIDIA remains in a well-established primary uptrend, with the latest advance carrying the shares back towards the May peak around $230–$232. We’re effectively testing a major resistance zone rather than breaking into clear air. A sustained close above $232 would confirm another higher high and could open the way towards $240, followed by the psychologically important $250 area. Failure here would leave the chart vulnerable to another pullback towards $220–$222, with stronger support around $208–$212. Below there, $195–$200 becomes the level that needs to hold to preserve the broader bullish structure.
The recent price action resembles a high-level consolidation or possible ascending continuation pattern. NVIDIA has repeatedly recovered from increasingly shallow corrections, which suggests buyers remain willing to step in before the stock becomes genuinely cheap.
Momentum supports the bullish case, although it also warns against chasing. MACD has crossed positively, with the MACD line around 3.24 against a 2.00 signal line and a positive histogram near 1.24. That tells us upside momentum is strengthening again. However, the Stochastic RSI is already above 80, with readings around 83 and 80. The market is therefore overbought on this timeframe and could pause or briefly retreat even if the larger trend remains intact.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the rally from the April 2025 low near $90 appears capable of being counted as a five-wave advance. The present move may be wave five of a larger impulsive sequence, although the internal subdivisions remain open to interpretation. That makes $232 particularly important: a decisive breakout would favour an extending fifth wave, while rejection accompanied by bearish momentum divergence would increase the risk that the advance is completing.
Our actionable view is bullish above $220, but we’d prefer either a confirmed close over $232 or a controlled pullback into support rather than buying directly into overbought resistance.
Glossary
Stochastic RSI (StochRSI):
The Stochastic RSI is a momentum indicator that combines the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to measure the speed and direction of price movements. It is primarily used to identify overbought or oversold conditions, helping traders anticipate potential trend reversals. By focusing on the relative position of the RSI within its recent range, StochRSI offers more sensitivity to price changes, making it ideal for spotting short-term trading opportunities.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD is a trend-following and momentum indicator that highlights changes in an asset's strength, direction, and duration. By comparing short-term and long-term moving averages, the MACD helps traders identify potential buy or sell signals and confirm the overall trend. Its histogram visually represents momentum, making it useful for gauging the strength of market moves and spotting potential reversals or continuations.
Elliot Wave:
Elliott Wave Theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, is a technical analysis tool that predicts market price movements through repetitive patterns called waves, driven by investor psychology. It suggests prices move in a cycle of eight waves: a 5-wave impulsive structure in the direction of the main trend (Wave 1 starts the trend, Wave 2 pulls back, Wave 3 is the strongest, Wave 4 pulls back again, and Wave 5 completes the trend), followed by a 3-wave corrective structure (Wave A moves against the trend, Wave B bounces, and Wave C moves against the trend again). These patterns repeat across different time scales, reflecting market sentiment swings between optimism and pessimism. By identifying these waves, traders can anticipate price movements and make better decisions on when to buy or sell.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and trading involves significant risk.
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