The Momentum’s Corner: 17th September 2026
This Week at a Glance
The strongest weekly moves were recorded for the 2-year US Treasury yield (+19 bps), the 10-year US Treasury yield (+17 bps), and WTI crude oil (+12.0%, where a sell signal is active). On the downside, the Russell 2000 (-2.8%), coffee (-2.8%, where a sell signal is active), and cocoa (-2.0%) posted the largest declines. Active buy signals: Nasdaq 100, Copper, Sugar. Active sell signals: Oil (WTI), Coffee. Each contract page also notes how the price moved in the three days between the Tuesday positioning snapshot and Friday’s publication (copper prices this week illustrate the need), the window in which the market first tests which side of the book, commercials or speculators, is being proven right.
“Active Crowds” This Week
Long: Nasdaq 100, Copper, Sugar. Short: Oil (WTI), Coffee.
1.1 What the CFTC Data Measures
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the CFTC, breaks open interest in US futures markets into three groups of actors. For commodities, the two groups of analytical interest are Producers/Merchants (PM) — the commercial participants who use futures to hedge their physical exposure — and Managed Money (MM) — the hedge funds and CTAs whose primary motive is speculative profit. For financial contracts and currencies, the analogous groups are Asset Managers (AM) and Leveraged Money (LM).
In this report, each group's weekly net long position (longs minus shorts) is converted into a rolling 3-year percentile rank (156-week window). A percentile of 100 means the group is more net long than at any point in the preceding three years. A percentile of 0 means the opposite extreme.
SARIM's team does not trade directly the signals associated with the data. One could, they have been backtested (1), and only the most relevant are listed in the table below. The team uses these data in order to better understand how the crowd is positioned and where it invests, in each asset but also from a cross-asset point of view. The principle is “NEVER INVEST AGAINST THE CROWD”
1.2 The Core Analytical Logic
The fundamental insight is that the two groups have structurally different information sets and time horizons. Commercials are closest to the physical market and tend to be contrarian hedgers — they hedge most aggressively when they fear downside, and reduce hedging when constructive on their product. Speculative money tends to follow and amplify trends, arriving later but often pushing prices to extremes.
Three questions structure every asset analysis:
- Where is each group in its own 3-year range? (absolute level)
- Are they moving in the same or opposite direction? (convergence vs. divergence, columns “Composite” and “Spread” in the tables)
- Who is leading price — and who is confirming it? (lead/lag relationship)
The team has selected the contracts with the most relevant signalling patterns.
Green = pct ≥70 (elevated/extreme long) | Red = pct ≤20 (extreme short) | Momentum filter: green = above threshold, red = below. Momentum score = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100. Signals and price returns are computed on a Friday-close to Friday-close basis (the COT publication day). Stars in the Signal column rate signal quality by hit-ratio quintile (5★ = 80–100%, 4★ = 60–80%, and so on) and show the AVERAGE of the long and short hit ratios; the long and short ratings are given separately in each contract’s page header.
(1) Check and do your own tests before using the signals
Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders
10Y UST | Rates | Long ★★★☆☆ Short ★★★★☆ | Entry≥75th Exit:95th 8-13w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — NEUTRAL
Asset Managers stands at 99 (-1 on the week, +1 over four weeks); Leveraged Money at 44 (+18 on the week, +24 over four weeks). Composite 72, spread +55, momentum 100; price +17 bps on the week, +47 bps over 13 weeks. In the three days between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the yield rose 15 bps, an early tilt in favour of Asset Managers.
- Leveraged Money +18 pts on the week to 44 (recent path 20→17→23→26→44): speculative money moved back toward the entry zone, the rates block continues to show maximum AM conviction against a light speculative book.
- No signal: neither the long nor the short Friday threshold is met (G2 at 44, long entry 75th).
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>75 (confirmer, yield). G2 at 44; no position. Closest trigger is the short side. Watch the leveraged money trajectory (20→17→23→26→44) for a crossing.
2Y UST | Rates | Long ★★★☆☆ Short ★★★★★ | Entry≥80th Exit:85th 8w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — NEUTRAL
Asset Managers stands at 23 (+1 on the week, -1 over four weeks); Leveraged Money at 97 (-1 on the week, +4 over four weeks). Composite 60, spread -74, momentum 100; price +19 bps on the week, +47 bps over 13 weeks. In the three days between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the yield rose 17 bps, an early tilt in favour of Leveraged Money.
- No signal: neither the long nor the short Friday threshold is met (G2 at 97, long entry 80th).
Strategy context: Strategy: LM>80 short-bonds; signal-only on the long side. G2 at 97; no position. Closest trigger is the long side. Watch the leveraged money trajectory (94→100→100→99→97) for a crossing.
S&P 500 | Equity | Long ★★★☆☆ Short ★★★★☆ | Entry≥70th Exit:80th 13-26w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — NEUTRAL
Asset Managers stands at 37 (-12 on the week, -23 over four weeks); Leveraged Money at 51 (-17 on the week, -36 over four weeks). Composite 44, spread -14, momentum 93; price -1.6% on the week, +2.2% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price fell 1.07%, so far vindicating the Asset Managers side of the book.
- Leveraged Money -17 pts on the week to 51 (recent path 87→85→70→68→51): speculative money moved back toward the floor, consistent with the broad retreat of both equity groups this week.
- Asset Managers -12 pts on the week to 37: drifting toward the middle of its range.
- No signal: neither the long nor the short Friday threshold is met (G2 at 51, long entry 70th).
Strategy context: Strategy: G2<20 recovery (weak at Friday entry); short G2<30 down. G2 at 51; no position. Closest trigger is the long side. Watch the leveraged money trajectory (87→85→70→68→51) for a crossing.
Nasdaq 100 | Equity | Long ★★★★☆ Short ★★★★☆ | Entry≥55th Exit:95th 13-26w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — LONG
Asset Managers stands at 51 (+10 on the week, +28 over four weeks); Leveraged Money at 60 (-21 on the week, +59 over four weeks). Composite 55, spread -9, momentum 83; price -1.5% on the week, -1.8% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price fell 1.37%, so far vindicating the Asset Managers side of the book.
- Leveraged Money -21 pts on the week to 60 (recent path 1→9→43→81→60): speculative money moved back toward the floor, the sharpest single-week speculative swing in the equity block.
- Asset Managers +10 pts on the week to 51: drifting toward the middle of its range.
- LONG signal active (Friday-established): entry threshold ≥55th met, exit at 95th or 13-26w.
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>55, exit at 95 or 13-26w. G2 at 60, above the 55th entry — signal active this week. Momentum 83. Hold/enter per the Friday close.
Russell 2000 | Equity | Long n/a Short n/a | Entry≥70th Exit:90th 8-13w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — NEUTRAL
Asset Managers stands at 39 (+13 on the week, +24 over four weeks); Leveraged Money at 3 (+0 on the week, -3 over four weeks). Composite 21, spread +36, momentum 88; price -2.8% on the week, -1.8% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price fell 2.37%, so far vindicating the Leveraged Money side of the book.
- Asset Managers +13 pts on the week to 39 (recent path 15→19→17→26→39): institutional conviction surged to a mid- range reading, in line with the same-week AM strength seen across all three equity indices.
- No signal: neither the long nor the short Friday threshold is met (G2 at 3, long entry 70th).
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>70 AND momentum>20, exit 90 or 8-13w. G2 at 3; no position. Closest trigger is the short side. Watch the leveraged money trajectory (5→4→6→3→3) for a crossing.
EUR-USD | FX | Long ★★★☆☆ Short ★★★★★ | Entry≥65th Exit:95th 13w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — NEUTRAL
Asset Managers stands at 26 (-8 on the week, +8 over four weeks); Leveraged Money at 21 (+5 on the week, +19 over four weeks). Composite 24, spread +6, momentum 48; price -0.2% on the week, +0.3% over 13 weeks. The price barely moved between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication.
- Asset Managers -8 pts on the week to 26 (recent path 18→21→32→35→26): institutional conviction was cut to a mid-range reading.
- Leveraged Money +5 pts on the week to 21: drifting toward the middle of its range.
- No signal: neither the long nor the short Friday threshold is met (G2 at 21, long entry 65th).
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>65 AND momentum>20. G2 at 21; no position. Closest trigger is the short side. Watch the leveraged money trajectory (2→3→13→15→21) for a crossing.
GBP-USD | FX | Long ★★★★☆ Short ★★★★★ | Entry≥15th Exit:50th 8w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — NEUTRAL
Asset Managers stands at 16 (+2 on the week, +10 over four weeks); Leveraged Money at 65 (-17 on the week, -8 over four weeks). Composite 41, spread -49, momentum 76; price -0.2% on the week, +0.7% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price fell 0.28%, so far vindicating the Asset Managers side of the book.
- Leveraged Money -17 pts on the week to 65 (recent path 74→81→92→83→65): speculative money moved back toward the floor.
- No signal: neither the long nor the short Friday threshold is met (G2 at 65, long entry 15th).
Strategy context: Strategy: AM<15 recovery, exit AM>50 or 8w. G2 at 65; no position. Closest trigger is the short side. Watch the leveraged money trajectory (74→81→92→83→65) for a crossing.
USD-JPY | FX | Long ★★★★☆ Short ★★★★★ | Entry≥70th Exit:85th 8w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — NEUTRAL
Asset Managers stands at 53 (+15 on the week, +15 over four weeks); Leveraged Money at 54 (+48 on the week, +9 over four weeks). Composite 53, spread -1, momentum 40; price -0.8% on the week, -3.5% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price rose 0.41%, so far vindicating the Leveraged Money side of the book.
- Leveraged Money +48 pts on the week to 54 (recent path 45→25→20→6→54): speculative money moved back toward the entry zone.
- Asset Managers +15 pts on the week to 53: drifting toward the middle of its range.
- No signal: neither the long nor the short Friday threshold is met (G2 at 54, long entry 70th).
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>70 AND momentum>50, exit 85 or 8w. G2 at 54; no position. Closest trigger is the long side. Watch the leveraged money trajectory (45→25→20→6→54) for a crossing.
DXY | FX | Long ★★★★☆ Short ★★★★★ | Entry≥65th Exit:80th 13w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — NEUTRAL
Asset Managers stands at 77 (+2 on the week, +0 over four weeks); Leveraged Money at 81 (-2 on the week, -1 over four weeks). Composite 79, spread -4, momentum 50; price -0.1% on the week, -0.7% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price rose 0.25%, so far vindicating the Leveraged Money side of the book.
- No signal: neither the long nor the short Friday threshold is met (G2 at 81, long entry 65th).
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>65 AND momentum>80, exit 80 or 13w. G2 at 81; no position. Closest trigger is the long side. Watch the leveraged money trajectory (83→86→87→83→81) for a crossing.
Oil (WTI) | Commodity | Long ★★★★☆ Short ★★★★★ | Entry≥70th Exit:95th 13-26w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — SHORT
Producers/Merchants stands at 88 (-1 on the week, -5 over four weeks); Managed Money at 63 (+16 on the week, +30 over four weeks). Composite 75, spread +25, momentum 65; price +12.0% on the week, +20.7% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price rose 10.16%, so far vindicating the Producers/Merchants side of the book.
- Managed Money +16 pts on the week to 63 (recent path 34→35→37→47→63): managed money moved back toward theentry zone.
- SHORT signal active (Friday-established): a fade of the collapsing speculative position where the commercial side is on the other side of the book.
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>70 AND momentum>60; short composite>62. Short rule triggered this week. Manage as a fade of the speculative extreme; the Tuesday→Friday move (+10.16%) already runs against the position and is the first risk to watch.
Copper | Commodity | Long ★★★☆☆ Short ★★★★★ | Entry≥70th Exit:90th 13w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — LONG
Producers/Merchants stands at 2 (-6 on the week, -5 over four weeks); Managed Money at 100 (+7 on the week, +0 over four weeks). Composite 51, spread -98, momentum 100; price -2.0% on the week, +0.6% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price fell 4.04%, so far vindicating the Producers/Merchants side of the book. Copper prices lost ground on Friday on a Reuters report that the White House has not decided yet on refined copper tarifs.
- Managed Money +7 pts on the week to 100 (recent path 100→99→97→93→100): managed money moved back toward the entry zone.
- Producers/Merchants -6 pts on the week to 2: drifting toward the bottom of its range.
- LONG signal active (Friday-established): entry threshold ≥70th met, exit at 90th or 13w.
- Divergence at an extreme: Producers/Merchants near the floor (2) against Managed Money near the ceiling (100) — a crowded speculative long the commercial side is actively fading; the short rule is built precisely on this configuration.
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>70 AND momentum>80 (weak long); short G2<25 down. G2 at 100, above the 70th entry — signal active this week. Momentum 100 (filter 80 cleared). Hold/enter per the Friday close.
Gold | Commodity | Long ★★★★★ Short ★★★★☆ | Entry≥65th Exit:85th 13w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — NEUTRAL
Producers/Merchants stands at 78 (+1 on the week, -1 over four weeks); Managed Money at 53 (-1 on the week, -3 over four weeks). Composite 65, spread +25, momentum 47; price -1.5% on the week, +3.5% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price fell 0.67%, so far vindicating the Managed Money side of the book.
- No signal: neither the long nor the short Friday threshold is met (G2 at 53, long entry 65th).
Strategy context: Strategy: Composite>65 AND momentum>60, exit 85. G2 at 53; no position. Closest trigger is the long side. Watch the managed money trajectory (56→58→59→54→53) for a crossing.
Coffee | Commodity | Long ★★★★☆ Short ★★★★☆ | Entry≥75th Exit:95th 13w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — SHORT
Producers/Merchants stands at 84 (+13 on the week, +19 over four weeks); Managed Money at 12 (-5 on the week, -13 over four weeks). Composite 48, spread +72, momentum 42; price -2.8% on the week, +22.6% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price fell 0.99%, so far vindicating the Managed Money side of the book.
- Producers/Merchants +13 pts on the week to 84 (recent path 65→59→58→71→84): commercial hedging surged to a mid-range reading.
- Managed Money -5 pts on the week to 12: drifting toward the bottom of its range.
- SHORT signal active (Friday-established): a fade of the collapsing speculative position where the commercial side is on the other side of the book.
- Divergence: Producers/Merchants near the ceiling (84) while Managed Money sits near the floor (12) — commercial conviction not yet shared by speculators.
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>75 AND momentum>70; short G2<25 down. Short rule triggered this week. Manage as a fade of the speculative extreme; the Tuesday→Friday move (-0.99%) is consistent with the short so far.
Cocoa | Commodity | Long ★★☆☆☆ Short ★★★★★ | Entry≥60th Exit:90th 26w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — NEUTRAL
Producers/Merchants stands at 54 (+17 on the week, -15 over four weeks); Managed Money at 20 (-3 on the week, +8 over four weeks). Composite 37, spread +34, momentum 67; price -2.0% on the week, +57.7% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price rose 1.27%, so far vindicating the Producers/Merchants side of the book.
- Producers/Merchants +17 pts on the week to 54 (recent path 69→63→62→37→54): commercial hedging surged to a mid-range reading.
- No signal: neither the long nor the short Friday threshold is met (G2 at 20, long entry 60th).
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>75 AND momentum>70; short G2<25 down. Short rule triggered this week. Manage as a fade of the speculative extreme; the Tuesday→Friday move (-0.99%) is consistent with the short so far.
Sugar | Commodity | Long ★★★★☆ Short ★★★★★ | Entry≥65th Exit:95th 13w
G1 Pct: percentile rank of the commercial group net long position over 156 weeks. G2 Pct: percentile rank of the speculative group. Spread (G1−G2): convergence/divergence. Composite: (G1+G2)/2. Momentum = (Price − 52w Low) / (52w High − 52w Low) × 100.
Current Positioning and Signal — LONG
Producers/Merchants stands at 0 (+0 on the week, +0 over four weeks); Managed Money at 100 (+0 on the week, +25 over four weeks). Composite 50, spread -100, momentum 95; price +3.7% on the week, +36.7% over 13 weeks. Between the Tuesday reading and Friday's publication the price rose 3.48%, so far vindicating the Managed Money side of the book.
- LONG signal active (Friday-established): entry threshold ≥65th met, exit at 95th or 13w.
- Divergence at an extreme: Producers/Merchants near the floor (0) against Managed Money near the ceiling (100) — a crowded speculative long the commercial side is actively fading; the short rule is built precisely on this configuration.
Strategy context: Strategy: G2>65, exit 95 or 13w. G2 at 100, above the 65th entry — signal active this week. Momentum 95. Hold/enter per the Friday close.
About SARIM (Swing & Rhythm Investment Managers):
Swing & Rhythm Investment Managers (operating as SARIM - Swing And Rhythm Investment Managers GmbH) is an independent Swiss-based asset management advisory firm headquartered in Zug, Switzerland. Founded in 2025, the firm is managed by Yann René Lepape and focuses on global macro cycle-based investment strategies.
About SGT Markets:
SGT has been helping clients and partners capitalise on multi-asset trading and investing opportunities for nearly 20 years. A history that has enabled us to achieve significant milestones on our journey from a small trading company to the international trading and investment group we are today.
Disclaimer
This article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase, sale or keeping of any security or financial instrument, or as a contractual document.
The information contained herein does not constitute any legal, tax or accounting advice and may not be suitable for all investors.
This marketing communication has been processed by SARIM (Swing & Rhythm Investment Managers). It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material.
The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only and may change without notice.
The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but SARIM does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Past performance gives no indication of future results.
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