If Markets Wanted to Remind Us That Inflation Hasn’t Gone Anywhere, They Succeeded Rather Spectacularly This Week
Chart Book for 21st of September 2026
The S&P 500 finished almost exactly where it started, slipping roughly 0.1%, while the Nasdaq managed a 0.7% gain. Beneath the surface, though, things were considerably less relaxed. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly pushed through 5%, oil remained above $100, and the Fed delivered its first rate hike in three years, lifting rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00% and suggesting another increase may still be coming.
That helped the dollar. EUR/USD slipped around 1% on the week to $1.1481, despite the ECB also tightening policy. In other words, we’re back to the old game of deciding which central bank can sound most miserable about inflation.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, remembered it was supposed to be exciting. After being knocked around following the Senate’s failure to advance major crypto legislation, BTC rebounded sharply, jumping nearly 6% on Friday to around $81,000.
Oil remains the elephant in the room. Brent settled at $104.87, having traded above $109 as attacks on Saudi infrastructure revived supply fears. Some diplomatic intervention from China helped calm things down, but Middle East risk certainly hasn’t disappeared.
Gold enjoyed the resulting confusion, gaining about 1% for the week and finishing near $4,390, despite the stronger dollar and higher rates.
The FTSE 100 managed a modest weekly gain despite dropping 1.4% on Friday to 10,659. Tesla finished roughly flat near $364, while Nvidia recovered strongly from Monday’s AI-inspired sell-off to close around $222.
Looking ahead, watch US and European PMI data, Fed speakers, oil and that 5% Treasury yield. Most importantly, Trump meets Xi Jinping on 24 September, with trade, tariffs, rare earths and AI firmly on the table.
Markets still look remarkably resilient. But resilience and comfort are two very different things.
Introduction to our Chart Book
In today’s volatile market environment, our technical analysis provides a clear, data-driven framework to support informed investment decisions. By evaluating price action, momentum indicators, and trend behavior across equities, commodities, and indices, we identify key support and resistance levels, reversal signals, and emerging opportunities. Using tools such as Elliott Wave theory, MACD, and Stochastics, we deliver actionable insights to improve trade timing, manage risk, and capture short- to medium-term market moves. This disciplined approach enhances precision and confidence for investors navigating shifting economic conditions.
Read on for our Technical Analysis:
EURUSD - 2 hour chart
EUR/USD remains technically weak despite the latest bounce. The pair peaked around 1.169–1.170 in August and has subsequently produced a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, falling through 1.1600, 1.1550 and briefly beneath 1.1450. The rebound to approximately 1.1485 looks more like a corrective bounce at this stage than an established trend reversal.
Immediate resistance lies around 1.1500–1.1520, followed by 1.1550. The more important barrier is 1.1600–1.1630, where sellers have repeatedly emerged. Support sits around 1.1440, then 1.1400 and finally the June/July region around 1.1350–1.1380.
MACD remains below zero, reflecting the broader bearish momentum, but the histogram has turned marginally positive and the MACD line is beginning to curl upwards. That tells us downside momentum is easing. It does not yet tell us that a new bullish trend has begun. For that we'd want to see MACD reclaim the zero line alongside price recovering through at least 1.1550–1.1600.
Stochastic RSI has surged to roughly 86/83, moving into overbought territory despite the relatively modest price recovery. That's noteworthy. It suggests the rebound is already becoming stretched and strengthens the case for watching 1.1500–1.1550 very carefully for renewed selling.
From an Elliott perspective, the decline from the August high has the appearance of an impulsive move lower. We may have completed Waves 1 through 3 and could now be seeing a Wave 4 corrective rebound, leaving scope for another Wave 5 decline afterwards. Alternatively, September's low may have completed an A-B-C correction; the next few sessions should clarify that.
For us, 1.1550–1.1600 is decisive. Below there, rallies remain vulnerable. Above 1.1600, we'd become much less confident in the bearish interpretation.
S&P 500
The S&P remains remarkably resilient. Despite several corrections since May, the underlying structure continues to produce higher highs and higher lows, and price around 7,725 is once again approaching the upper boundary of the recent range.
The important resistance zone sits around 7,740–7,780, where the August highs were established. A clean breakout would effectively put the market back into price-discovery mode, with 7,800 the obvious psychological milestone before attention shifts towards 7,900. Support is initially around 7,650–7,680, followed by 7,575–7,600. The more significant structural floor lies closer to 7,450–7,500.
MACD has quietly improved. The MACD line is above its signal line, the histogram is positive and momentum is building. It isn't an explosive signal, but it supports another attempt at the highs. Importantly, we're not currently seeing an obvious bearish MACD divergence against price.
Stochastic RSI around 67/72 sits in positive territory without being heavily overbought. That's constructive because the market still has momentum capacity if buyers decide to attack resistance.
The Elliott count from April remains consistent with an extended bullish impulse. We can interpret April-to-May as Waves 1 and 2, the major May/June advance as Wave 3, subsequent consolidation as Wave 4, and the August move as part of Wave 5. The difficulty is determining whether Wave 5 has already completed or is extending. A breakout above the August high would favour extension.
For trading purposes, 7,600 is our short-term dividing line. Above it, we'd continue respecting the prevailing uptrend and the possibility of fresh highs. A failure at 7,750 followed by a break below 7,600 would raise the probability of a broader corrective phase.
The bulls remain in charge — but they're standing very close to the ceiling.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin is attempting to break out of the consolidation that followed August's explosive move from roughly $64,000 to $78,000. Price around $81,300 is now challenging — and marginally exceeding — the previous September highs around $80,000–81,000. Technically, that makes this one of the more interesting charts in the group.
The obvious resistance is $81,500–82,000. A sustained 4-hour close above that zone would confirm the breakout and could open room towards $84,000–86,000, possibly higher if momentum accelerates. Initial support has moved up to $79,000–80,000, followed by $76,000–77,000. Below $75,000 we'd regard the breakout attempt as having failed.
MACD strongly supports the bullish interpretation. The MACD line has turned sharply higher, crossed above its signal line and moved further into positive territory. The histogram is expanding as well. That's exactly what we'd like to see alongside an attempted breakout — price and momentum moving together rather than diverging.
Stochastic RSI, unsurprisingly, is very hot at around 92. Bitcoin is overbought on this timeframe, meaning a retest of the breakout zone would be entirely normal. Overbought doesn't mean bearish; in strong crypto moves it can simply indicate acceleration.
The Elliott structure is particularly interesting. August's vertical rally could represent a powerful Wave 3, with the subsequent sideways movement forming a complex Wave 4 consolidation. If so, the current push above $80,000 may be the early stages of Wave 5. A projection towards the mid-$80,000s would fit that interpretation reasonably well.
We therefore lean bullish while Bitcoin holds above $78,000–79,000. What we don't want to see is a breakout above $81,000 immediately rejected back beneath $78,000. That would smell suspiciously like a bull trap.
Oil (WTI Crude)
Oil has finally hit a patch of turbulence after a very strong run. From July's low near $68, WTI advanced relentlessly towards $105–106, but price has now rolled over to around $95.50. The longer-term recovery remains intact, while the shorter-term chart has clearly entered correction mode.
The first support zone is approximately $94–95, which we're testing now. Below there, $91–92 becomes important, followed by the major breakout area around $87–89. Resistance has developed around $99–101, with the recent high around $105–106 the level bulls ultimately need to reclaim.
MACD has deteriorated sharply. The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, both are falling, and the histogram is increasingly negative. Of all the charts here, this is one of the clearest short-term momentum warnings. The bulls have lost control for the moment.
However, Stochastic RSI around 12–14 is deeply oversold. That creates the classic conflict: trend momentum is bearish, but the market is becoming stretched enough for a tactical bounce. We therefore wouldn't be surprised to see $94–95 attract some bargain hunting before the next directional move develops.
The Elliott picture looks relatively straightforward. We can count a convincing impulsive advance from the July low into September, potentially completing five waves near $105–106. If that's correct, the current decline should be treated as an A-B-C corrective phase rather than automatically assuming a complete trend reversal.
The $91–95 region is therefore crucial. Holding it would leave the broader bullish structure healthy and create the possibility of another assault on $100+. Breaking $91 would suggest the correction is deeper than a routine pullback, potentially targeting $87 or even $82–84.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold has undergone a sizeable correction from the March region above $5,300, but the chart has improved markedly since the June/July bottom around $4,000. What we’re now looking at is a recovery trend that suffered a sharp September correction from roughly $4,680 and is trying to re-establish itself.
Price around $4,378 has reclaimed the $4,340 area, which is encouraging. Immediate resistance sits around $4,400–4,450, followed by $4,500 and the important September swing high around $4,650–4,680. Support comes in around $4,300, then $4,220–4,250. A break back below $4,200 would seriously damage the recovery structure.
MACD is becoming constructive. The MACD line has crossed back above the signal line and the histogram is positive. Momentum isn’t explosive, but it’s turning in favour of buyers, which supports the rebound from September’s lows.
The complication is Stochastic RSI, already near 83–87 and therefore approaching or sitting in overbought territory. That tells us gold may need to pause before attacking the next resistance zone. A small consolidation would actually improve the technical setup rather than weaken it.
Our Elliott interpretation is that the decline from March into June could represent a completed A-B-C correction, with the advance from July beginning a new impulsive structure. The August surge towards $4,650 may have been Wave 3, September’s retreat Wave 4, leaving the possibility of a developing Wave 5. That interpretation becomes much more persuasive above $4,650.
We’re cautiously constructive while gold remains above $4,300. A move through $4,450 would strengthen the case for another attack on $4,680, while a break beneath $4,220 would send us back to the drawing board.
UK100 Index
The FTSE has spent the last several weeks doing something markets are exceptionally good at: going nowhere while making everyone work very hard. The broader trend from the April lows remains upward, but since the August peak close to 10,950–11,000, we’ve entered a broad corrective range.
Current price around 10,627 sits close to an important support region at 10,580–10,620. We’ve seen buyers appear around here several times. If that floor gives way, the next downside areas come in around 10,500, then 10,400–10,450. Above us, 10,750–10,810 is the first meaningful resistance band, followed by the August high around 10,950.
MACD has rolled over sharply following the most recent failed rally. The MACD line is below its signal line and the histogram has turned negative. That favours the bears in the immediate term and tells us the rejection around 10,800 wasn’t trivial.
The Stochastic RSI, however, has already collapsed into deeply oversold territory — around 0/15. That’s important because it means downward momentum is stretched. We could easily see another bounce from support even while the broader corrective structure remains intact. We therefore wouldn’t be enthusiastic about initiating fresh shorts directly into 10,600 without evidence that support has actually broken.
From an Elliott perspective, the advance from April into August looks compatible with a completed five-wave rise, followed by an A-B-C corrective structure. September’s action may represent the latter stages of that correction. A break below 10,580 would strengthen that interpretation and potentially extend Wave C towards 10,400.
For now we’re treating 10,580–10,600 as the pivot. Hold it and another run at 10,800 is feasible. Lose it decisively and the correction probably has further to travel.
Tesla
Tesla is giving us a rather different setup. The recovery from the July low near $300 has been impressive, carrying price back towards $365–370, but the larger structure is still much less convincing than NVIDIA. We’ve effectively moved from a sharp decline into a recovery phase, and the critical question is whether that recovery becomes a genuine trend reversal.
The immediate battleground is $370–390. Tesla has repeatedly found trouble around this zone, and there’s substantial historical congestion above current prices. A clean break above $390 would materially improve the chart and potentially expose $410–430. Conversely, the first meaningful support sits around $350, followed by $330–335, with the July low around $300 remaining the major line in the sand.
MACD has flattened considerably. The lines remain marginally positive but are converging, while the histogram has slipped slightly negative. In other words, the rally has lost some horsepower. It’s not yet an outright bearish momentum signal, but it suggests Tesla needs fresh buying fairly quickly if the recovery is going to extend.
Stochastic RSI around 64–68 is much healthier than an extreme overbought reading. There’s room for another push higher, but the indicator has also stopped accelerating. We’d describe momentum as neutral-to-positive rather than aggressively bullish.
The Elliott structure from the July low looks like a possible five-wave recovery, with price perhaps completing Wave 3 and undergoing a Wave 4 consolidation, or alternatively already entering the later stages of Wave 5. The count isn’t clean enough to be dogmatic.
Above $350, we give the recovery the benefit of the doubt. Above $390, the chart becomes considerably more constructive. Below $330, we’d start questioning the entire rebound.
NVIDIA
NVIDIA remains structurally bullish, but we’re now dealing with a market pressing against an increasingly important ceiling rather than one beginning a fresh trend. Price around $222 has recovered strongly from the July pullback and is again challenging the $225–230 region, where several previous rallies have stalled. That makes this the immediate breakout zone. A convincing close above roughly $230 would remove the recent range ceiling and open the way towards $240, potentially higher. On the downside, first support sits around $215–218, followed by $205–210. Below $200, the short-term picture changes considerably.
The MACD is interesting. The histogram has just moved positive, while the MACD line is attempting to turn back above its signal line. That tells us momentum is improving again, although not yet with the sort of conviction we saw during the stronger May and July advances. We’d want to see MACD expand positively alongside a breakout through $230 rather than price pushing higher while momentum fades.
Stochastic RSI is the immediate warning flag. At approximately 97/84, it’s firmly overbought. That doesn’t automatically mean “sell” — strong markets can remain overbought for surprisingly long periods — but it does tell us chasing price here carries poorer risk/reward.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the advance from the April low near $165 can reasonably be interpreted as an impulsive five-wave sequence. We may now be somewhere within a later Wave 5, although the internal count remains open to interpretation. If so, a breakout above $230 could represent the final acceleration rather than the beginning of an entirely new cycle.
Our bias stays bullish above $210–215, but we’d rather buy a controlled pullback or a confirmed breakout than chase an overbought market into resistance.
Glossary
Stochastic RSI (StochRSI):
The Stochastic RSI is a momentum indicator that combines the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to measure the speed and direction of price movements. It is primarily used to identify overbought or oversold conditions, helping traders anticipate potential trend reversals. By focusing on the relative position of the RSI within its recent range, StochRSI offers more sensitivity to price changes, making it ideal for spotting short-term trading opportunities.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD is a trend-following and momentum indicator that highlights changes in an asset's strength, direction, and duration. By comparing short-term and long-term moving averages, the MACD helps traders identify potential buy or sell signals and confirm the overall trend. Its histogram visually represents momentum, making it useful for gauging the strength of market moves and spotting potential reversals or continuations.
Elliot Wave:
Elliott Wave Theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, is a technical analysis tool that predicts market price movements through repetitive patterns called waves, driven by investor psychology. It suggests prices move in a cycle of eight waves: a 5-wave impulsive structure in the direction of the main trend (Wave 1 starts the trend, Wave 2 pulls back, Wave 3 is the strongest, Wave 4 pulls back again, and Wave 5 completes the trend), followed by a 3-wave corrective structure (Wave A moves against the trend, Wave B bounces, and Wave C moves against the trend again). These patterns repeat across different time scales, reflecting market sentiment swings between optimism and pessimism. By identifying these waves, traders can anticipate price movements and make better decisions on when to buy or sell.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and trading involves significant risk.
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