Markets Are Rising, Risks Are Multiplying — and Complacency Is Becoming Expensive
Chart Book for 3rd of August 2026
Markets spent the last week of July reminding us that a rising index doesn’t necessarily mean relaxed investors. The S&P 500 gained 1% to finish at 7,489.72, despite suffering a 1.5% Wednesday tumble after the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Three policymakers wanted a quarter-point rise, giving us the unusual spectacle of a “hold” that felt distinctly hawkish. Second-quarter US growth also slowed to an annualised 1.5%, while June PCE data kept inflation firmly in the conversation.
EUR/USD recovered towards 1.15 as eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.9%, strengthening the argument for an ECB increase later this year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hovered around $63,000, roughly 1% higher over the week but still unable to escape its $60,000–66,000 holding pen. Crypto sentiment has improved, although enthusiasm remains rather more cautious than evangelical.
Oil was the week’s troublemaker. WTI finished near $84.67 and Brent at $90.12 as disrupted shipping, falling US inventories and continuing Middle East hostilities tightened supply. Gold briefly benefited from geopolitical nerves and the softer dollar, but ended near $4,045 after Friday’s retreat.
The FTSE 100 reached another intraday record at 10,989 before closing at 10,868. Energy, mining and financial shares continued doing the heavy lifting, helping the index gain roughly 3.5% during July.
Tesla finished close to $311, broadly unchanged after the previous week’s collapse. NVIDIA endured another AI-driven wobble but rebounded 2.9% on Friday to $200.75, reclaiming the title of the world’s most valuable company.
Looking ahead, we’ll watch ISM manufacturing and services, JOLTS, ADP employment and Friday’s US payroll report. Earnings from Palantir, AMD, Disney, Uber and Caterpillar should also keep things lively. Technically, watch S&P 7,600, EUR/USD 1.16, Bitcoin $66,000, gold $4,000 and oil $88–90. This market still has upward momentum—but increasingly expensive reasons to remain cautious.
Introduction to our Chart Book
In today’s volatile market environment, our technical analysis provides a clear, data-driven framework to support informed investment decisions. By evaluating price action, momentum indicators, and trend behavior across equities, commodities, and indices, we identify key support and resistance levels, reversal signals, and emerging opportunities. Using tools such as Elliott Wave theory, MACD, and Stochastics, we deliver actionable insights to improve trade timing, manage risk, and capture short- to medium-term market moves. This disciplined approach enhances precision and confidence for investors navigating shifting economic conditions.
Read on for our Technical Analysis:
EURUSD - 2 hour chart
EUR/USD has produced a useful short-term recovery from the July low around 1.1340, but we’re not yet convinced that the broader decline has reversed. The chart continues to show lower highs from the February peak near 1.2000 and the May high around 1.1800. The latest jump to approximately 1.1530 has carried price back into a previous support zone, which may now act as resistance.
We see immediate resistance between 1.1540 and 1.1560. Above that, the next hurdle is 1.1600–1.1620, where the descending sequence of highs becomes more important. A sustained break above 1.1620 would improve the structure and expose 1.1680–1.1700. Support now sits at 1.1480–1.1500, followed by 1.1400. A return beneath 1.1380 would suggest the bounce has failed and bring 1.1330 back into play.
MACD has crossed positively and moved above zero. The MACD line is around 0.0033, above its signal near 0.0027, with a positive histogram. We’re seeing genuine improvement in short-term momentum, although the signal is becoming extended after the sudden rise. Continued strength above 1.1540 would validate it.
Stochastic RSI is around 59 and 64, leaving momentum in neutral-to-positive territory rather than overbought. The faster line has slipped beneath the slower one, so we may see some consolidation before another attempt higher.
Our Elliott interpretation is that the decline from the May high unfolded in five waves, with the July low potentially marking completion of wave five. The present advance may therefore be wave A of an A-B-C recovery. We’d expect a wave-B pullback to hold above 1.1450 if that scenario is correct. Above 1.1620, wave C could target 1.1700–1.1780; below 1.1380, the bearish sequence is probably extending.
S&P 500
The S&P remains in a primary uptrend, although the index has spent nearly two months moving sideways beneath the 7,600 area. We view that consolidation as a potential high-level rectangle, with repeated resistance around 7,580–7,620 and support broadly between 7,380 and 7,430. The latest rebound from below 7,400 has recovered 7,500, keeping the bullish structure intact, but buyers still need to prove they can break the ceiling.
A sustained move above 7,600 would complete the consolidation and place 7,700–7,750 within reach. Initial support lies around 7,470, followed by 7,400. Below there, we’d watch 7,300 and the major breakout area around 7,200. A close below 7,380 would shift the range from constructive consolidation towards a possible distribution pattern.
MACD is slightly above zero, with the MACD line near 10 and above its signal line, while the histogram has turned positive. We see improving momentum, but the signal remains modest and needs price confirmation above 7,550–7,600.
Stochastic RSI has jumped to around 88 and 91, placing both lines firmly in overbought territory. That tells us the immediate rebound is stretched and could pause beneath resistance. In a strong market, however, overbought readings can remain elevated, so we wouldn’t fight the trend without evidence of rejection.
The Elliott structure from the April low near 6,400 appears impulsive. We can count the advance into June as waves one through three, with the recent sideways movement possibly forming a complex wave four. If so, a break above 7,600 would begin wave five towards fresh highs. Our alternative is that wave five has already completed and the range is topping. A break below 7,380 would make that defensive count considerably more credible.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin remains trapped in a damaged longer-term structure, but we’re beginning to see signs of stabilisation. The market has fallen from above $100,000 to the present $63,000 area, with major lower highs established around $96,000 in January and $81,000 in May. Since June’s sharp decline, however, price has built a relatively tight range, suggesting that selling pressure is no longer accelerating.
We identify support between $61,000 and $62,000, followed by the July low around $58,000–59,000. A break beneath $58,000 would be technically serious and could expose $55,000 and $52,000. Resistance sits initially at $65,000–66,000, with a more meaningful barrier around $68,000. Bitcoin would need to recover $68,000 and then $72,000 before we could argue that the sequence of lower highs has been broken.
MACD remains below zero, with both lines around −300, but the MACD line is marginally above its signal and the histogram has turned slightly positive. We see bearish momentum losing force, although there is not yet enough evidence to call a durable reversal. A push above zero alongside a break of $66,000 would strengthen the recovery signal.
Stochastic RSI has risen into the upper half of its range, with readings near 76 and 71. Momentum is improving, but it’s already approaching overbought territory without price having escaped resistance. That divergence encourages some caution.
Our Elliott count suggests the decline from the October high may be developing as a large A-B-C correction. The May peak near $81,000 could have completed wave B, leaving the June collapse as wave C. That wave may have ended around $58,000, but confirmation requires a break above $68,000. Until then, we must allow for one final downward wave that retests or breaks $58,000.
Oil (WTI Crude)
WTI has recovered impressively from its late-June low around $68, producing a sequence of higher lows and higher highs before meeting resistance close to $92. The subsequent retreat held around $79–80, and price has now rebounded to roughly $86.80. We therefore see a developing bullish structure, although oil still needs to clear the recent swing high before the recovery becomes fully convincing.
The immediate pivot is $84. A hold above that level keeps pressure on resistance between $87 and $88, followed by $91–93. A breakout above $93 would complete a continuation pattern and could target $97–100. On the downside, losing $83–84 would expose $80, while a break beneath $78 would damage the sequence of higher lows and bring $74–75 back into view.
MACD has turned upwards close to the zero line. The MACD line is above its signal line and the histogram is positive, although only marginally so. We see early evidence of renewed bullish momentum, but not yet the sort of expansion that would confirm a powerful breakout. A move through $88 accompanied by a strengthening positive histogram would be far more persuasive.
Stochastic RSI has surged to approximately 93 and 76. The faster line is firmly overbought, warning that the latest rally may pause or retrace before advancing further. We wouldn’t interpret that alone as a sell signal, especially while price maintains its higher-low structure.
Our Elliott view is that the June low completed a five-wave decline from the May high. The advance towards $92 may have formed wave one, with the retreat to $79 representing wave two. If that count is correct, we may now be entering wave three higher. Holding $83 supports that case; a break below $78 would instead favour a broader A-B-C rebound that has already run its course.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is trying to build a floor after an exceptionally persistent decline from the February spike above $5,500. We can identify a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows through June, but that pattern has recently flattened into a base between approximately $3,970 and $4,150. The important question is whether this is accumulation after a completed decline or merely a pause before another leg lower.
Support sits around $4,000–4,020, with repeated buying appearing just beneath that region. A decisive break below $3,970 would invalidate much of the basing argument and leave the market vulnerable to $3,900 and potentially $3,800. Initial resistance lies around $4,100–4,150. Above there, we’d look towards $4,250 and the June breakdown area near $4,350. Gold needs to recover at least $4,200–4,250 before we can discuss a meaningful trend reversal.
MACD is virtually flat and close to its zero line. The MACD line is slightly below the signal line, while the histogram is only modestly negative. We read this as an absence of directional conviction rather than aggressive selling. A bullish crossover above zero would provide useful confirmation that the base is beginning to resolve upwards.
Stochastic RSI is near oversold territory, with the faster line around 18 and the slower line near 27. That supports the possibility of a short-term bounce, particularly while $4,000 holds, but we’d still want price confirmation.
The Elliott structure from the February high can be interpreted as a five-wave decline, with the late-June low potentially completing wave five. The present sideways action may therefore be the beginning of an A-B-C recovery. However, if $3,970 breaks, we’d assume wave five is extending rather than finished. Above $4,150 the recovery case improves; below $3,970, sellers retain control.
UK100 Index
Encouragingly, the FTSE remains one of the stronger charts in this group. We’re seeing a clear sequence of higher lows since the April trough, followed by a breakout through the June and July resistance zones. Price has now reached the psychologically important 11,000 area before easing back towards 10,872. That pullback looks orderly so far, but the previous February high around 10,900 means the market is testing an important breakout zone rather than trading in open air.
We see immediate support between 10,800 and 10,850. Below that, 10,700–10,720 should attract interest, followed by the more substantial breakout base around 10,580–10,620. A close beneath 10,580 would warn that the recent breakout has failed. On the upside, resistance is concentrated between 10,950 and 11,000. A clean break above 11,000 could open the way towards 11,100 and 11,200.
MACD remains above zero, but the MACD line has slipped beneath the signal line and the histogram is negative. We read that as fading upside momentum rather than an established bearish reversal. The larger trend remains constructive while price holds above the breakout area.
Stochastic RSI has fallen sharply, with the faster line near 5 and the slower line around 23. We’re therefore close to short-term oversold territory after the rejection from 11,000. That could produce a bounce, although an oversold reading can persist during a deeper correction.
Our Elliott count suggests the April low began a five-wave advance, with the latest push towards 11,000 potentially completing wave five. If so, we should allow for an A-B-C pullback towards 10,700 or 10,600. Alternatively, a brief consolidation above 10,800 followed by a break through 11,000 would suggest wave five is still extending.
Tesla
Tesla’s chart has suffered obvious technical damage. We’ve seen a sharp downside gap from the high-$370s into the low-$320s, followed by another slide towards $300. That gap now forms a formidable overhead resistance zone between approximately $335 and $375. Until it is substantially filled, we have to treat rallies as corrective rather than assume the larger uptrend has restarted.
Price is attempting to stabilise around $300–310. We see initial support at $300, followed by $285–290. If those levels fail, the earlier congestion between $260 and $270 becomes a realistic downside target. On the upside, $320–325 is the first hurdle, but Tesla would need to recover $340–350 before we could say the immediate bearish pressure had materially eased.
MACD remains deeply negative, with the MACD line around −20.6 and its signal near −21.6. A marginal bullish crossover appears to be developing and the histogram has turned slightly positive, telling us the rate of decline is slowing. That isn’t the same as a confirmed reversal; both lines remain well beneath zero, so the underlying momentum picture is still poor.
Stochastic RSI has rebounded sharply, with readings around 70 and 50. We therefore have room for a further relief rally, although the rapid recovery also tells us not to chase strength directly into gap resistance.
In Elliott Wave terms, the fall from the late-2025 peak near $490 appears capable of being counted as a larger A-B-C decline. The latest gap lower may represent the final stage of wave C, but we cannot rule out an unfolding third wave down. Holding $300 and reclaiming $340 would support the corrective-bottom interpretation. A decisive break beneath $285 would instead point towards another bearish leg, potentially targeting $260–270.
NVIDIA
NVIDIA remains in a broadly bullish structure, but we’re now dealing with a consolidation rather than a clean continuation trend. The rise from the April low near $90 developed into a strong impulsive advance, eventually reaching approximately $235 in May. Since then, price has produced lower highs but repeatedly attracted buyers around $190–195. That leaves us watching what resembles a broad descending triangle or corrective range, with resistance initially at $208–212 and stronger supply around $220–225.
The immediate support zone sits between $195 and $190. A sustained break beneath it would weaken the structure and expose $180–182, followed by the more important swing low around $170. Conversely, if we reclaim $212 and hold above it, we could reasonably look for another challenge of $225 and eventually the high near $235.
MACD is slightly below zero, with the MACD line around −2.42 and beneath its signal line near −2.00. The negative histogram is small, so bearish momentum exists but isn’t particularly forceful. We’d want to see a bullish crossover close to the zero line before trusting the present rebound.
Stochastic RSI is recovering, with the faster line near 52 and the slower line around 35. That suggests short-term momentum is turning upwards from a relatively weak position, although we’re not yet looking at a decisive momentum breakout.
Our preferred Elliott interpretation is that the May high completed a five-wave advance from the April low, leaving the subsequent movement as an A-B-C correction. Wave C may have ended, or could still be developing, near $190. Above $212, that bullish count gains credibility; below $190, we’d expect the correction to extend towards $180 or even $170.
Glossary
Stochastic RSI (StochRSI):
The Stochastic RSI is a momentum indicator that combines the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to measure the speed and direction of price movements. It is primarily used to identify overbought or oversold conditions, helping traders anticipate potential trend reversals. By focusing on the relative position of the RSI within its recent range, StochRSI offers more sensitivity to price changes, making it ideal for spotting short-term trading opportunities.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD is a trend-following and momentum indicator that highlights changes in an asset's strength, direction, and duration. By comparing short-term and long-term moving averages, the MACD helps traders identify potential buy or sell signals and confirm the overall trend. Its histogram visually represents momentum, making it useful for gauging the strength of market moves and spotting potential reversals or continuations.
Elliot Wave:
Elliott Wave Theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, is a technical analysis tool that predicts market price movements through repetitive patterns called waves, driven by investor psychology. It suggests prices move in a cycle of eight waves: a 5-wave impulsive structure in the direction of the main trend (Wave 1 starts the trend, Wave 2 pulls back, Wave 3 is the strongest, Wave 4 pulls back again, and Wave 5 completes the trend), followed by a 3-wave corrective structure (Wave A moves against the trend, Wave B bounces, and Wave C moves against the trend again). These patterns repeat across different time scales, reflecting market sentiment swings between optimism and pessimism. By identifying these waves, traders can anticipate price movements and make better decisions on when to buy or sell.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and trading involves significant risk.
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